{"id":52713,"date":"2020-04-23T08:21:37","date_gmt":"2020-04-23T13:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=52713"},"modified":"2020-04-23T08:21:44","modified_gmt":"2020-04-23T13:21:44","slug":"blains-morning-porridge-april-23-2002-avoiding-pension-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=52713","title":{"rendered":"Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 23 2002 – Avoiding Pension Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 23 2002 – Avoiding Pension Crash<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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\u201cIn a time of universal deceit \u2013 telling the truth is a revolutionary act\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is not a complete fool. He knows enough to move oil prices up. Threaten to start a war in the Middle East. Works every time..! Sure enough stocks followed higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, even St George would struggle to slay the microscopic dragon at the core of this unfolding crisis. Just a few months ago none of us foresaw just how deep the downturn the COVID virus triggered could possibly go. In early Feb I suggested we faced an economic hit similar to the SARs epidemic \u2013 a $40 bln hit to the global economy, and a 16% slide in markets. I massively underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are a number of brutal realities:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1) We still don\u2019t know how much deeper the Virus will dig. The news is very mixed \u2013 the first wave is apparently passing in Europe and US, but there are still doubts on subsequent waves, and uncertainty about renewed infections around the globe. Lockdowns are being extended. The social distancing and lockdowns that have trounced the global economy in the short-term aren\u2019t going to end overnight. They are set to continue with only limited easing \u2013 for months, maybe through the year. We just don\u2019t know \u2013 which means the real economic damage continues to escalate.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2) Don\u2019t look to Global Markets for guidance \u2013 they are detached from the economic reality because of renewed financial distortions from QEI (QE Infinity) govt supports and bailouts. There is still an element of denial in markets \u2013 but sentiment is beginning to shift as the evidence mounts. A host of indicators such as the rate of downgrades to upgrades being nearly 10\/1, central banks buying Fallen Angel junk, and mandatory dividend cuts \u2013 all point to rising crisis. (There are still sound investment opportunities out there \u2013 but prices are seriously distorted.) The number of recommendations to buy gold is soaring \u2013 a sure sign of trouble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 23 2002 – Avoiding Pension Crash \u201cIn a time of universal deceit \u2013 telling the truth is a revolutionary act\u201d Trump is not a complete fool. He knows enough to move oil prices up. Threaten to start a war in the Middle East. Works every time..! Sure enough stocks followed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[2809,15674,23143,28817,29011,29428],"class_list":["post-52713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","tag-bailouts","tag-bill-blain","tag-blains-morning-porridge","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-lockdowns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52713"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52714,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52713\/revisions\/52714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}