{"id":52486,"date":"2020-04-14T17:42:14","date_gmt":"2020-04-14T22:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=52486"},"modified":"2020-04-14T17:42:21","modified_gmt":"2020-04-14T22:42:21","slug":"hyperinflationists-come-out-of-the-woodwork-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=52486","title":{"rendered":"Hyperinflationists Come Out of the Woodwork Again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hyperinflationists Come Out of the Woodwork Again<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CoinDesk asked me to share my opinions on the chance of hyperinflation. My thoughts are below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CoinDesk<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hi Mish,<\/p>

I am working on an article for CoinDesk about recent fiscal and monetary splurge by governments and central banks across the globe and the impact on gold and bitcoin. As I see, a majority of analysts and economists are calling for hyperinflation and rally in gold.<\/p>

Could you please share your take?<\/p>

Thanks<\/p>

CoinDesk<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Matter of Definitions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before there can be a rational debate on anything, people must agree on definitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe most people would accept this definition: Hyperinflation is the complete collapse in currency against every other asset<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pick a currency, say the US dollar. To bet on hyperinflation and be correct, the dollar would have to go nearly worthless vs the Euro, the Pound, the Yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternatively, 50% in a single month would quality. Professor Hanke defines Hyperinflation as a 50% Currency Collapser in a Month<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Q: How likely is that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A: Close to zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Replay Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curiously, this is a replay of my 2010 article Williams Calls for \u201cGreat Hyperinflationary Great Depression\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Williams is John Williams of Shadowstats. He was not alone. Here is a snip changing the name Williams to “Hyperinflationsists” in the first word of these four points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Hyperinflationists focus on money supply, ignoring credit although credit is far more important.<\/li>
  2. Hyperinflationists ignore numerous global interconnections. Calling for hyperinflation in the US alone ignores happenings in Europe, Japan, and China. I remain amazed at how US-centric hyperinflationists in general are.<\/li>
  3. Hyperinflationists ignore US gold holdings, the largest in the world.<\/li>
  4. Hyperinflationists ignore the massive influence of consumer attitudes and bank attitudes towards lending.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    To expect the US dollar to go to zero vs the Euro, Yen, Food, gold, Yuan, etc., was then and is now pure silliness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Hyperinflationists Come Out of the Woodwork Again CoinDesk asked me to share my opinions on the chance of hyperinflation. My thoughts are below. From CoinDesk Hi Mish, I am working on an article for CoinDesk about recent fiscal and monetary splurge by governments and central banks across the globe and the impact on gold and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[374,413,459,14648,13390],"class_list":["post-52486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-gold","tag-hyperinflation","tag-john-williams","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52486"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52487,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52486\/revisions\/52487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}