{"id":51756,"date":"2020-03-12T18:19:23","date_gmt":"2020-03-12T23:19:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51756"},"modified":"2020-03-12T18:19:28","modified_gmt":"2020-03-12T23:19:28","slug":"how-black-swans-are-shaping-planet-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51756","title":{"rendered":"How black swans are shaping planet panic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2020\/03\/how-black-swans-are-shaping-planet-panic\/\">How black swans are shaping planet panic <\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A case can be made that the current financial panic will only subside when the ultimate black swan \u2013 Covid-19 \u2013 is contained.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is the planet under the spell of a pair of black swans \u2013 a Wall Street meltdown, caused by an alleged oil war between Russia and the House of Saud, plus the uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 \u2013 leading to an all-out \u201ccross-asset pandemonium\u201d as billed by Nomura? &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or, as German analyst Peter Spengler suggests, whatever the averted climax in the Strait of Hormuz has not brought about so far \u201cmight now come through market forces\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s start with what really happened after five hours of relatively polite discussions last Friday in Vienna. What turned into a de facto OPEC+ meltdown was quite the game-changing plot twist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">OPEC+ includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Essentially, after enduring years of OPEC price-fixing \u2013 the result of relentless US pressure over Saudi Arabia \u2013 while patiently rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves,<strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>Moscow saw the perfect window of opportunity to strike, targeting the US shale industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shares of some of these US producers plunged as much as 50% on \u201cBlack Monday.\u201d They simply cannot survive with a barrel of oil in the $30s \u2013 and that\u2019s where this is going. After all these companies are drowning in debt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A $30 barrel of oil has to be seen as a precious gift\/stimulus package for a global economy in turmoil \u2013 especially from the point of view of oil importers and consumers. This is what Russia made possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the stimulus may last for a while. Russia\u2019s National Wealth Fund has made it clear it has enough reserves (over $150 billion) to cover a budget deficit from six to ten years \u2013 even with oil at $25 a barrel. Goldman Sachs has already gamed a possible Brent crude at $20 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How black swans are shaping planet panic A case can be made that the current financial panic will only subside when the ultimate black swan \u2013 Covid-19 \u2013 is contained.\u00a0 Is the planet under the spell of a pair of black swans \u2013 a Wall Street meltdown, caused by an alleged oil war between Russia [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[15907,1552,1849,592,596,4076,694,860],"class_list":["post-51756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","tag-asia-times","tag-black-swan-event","tag-financial-markets","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-supply","tag-pepe-escobar","tag-russia","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51756"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51757,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51756\/revisions\/51757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}