{"id":51684,"date":"2020-03-09T16:47:42","date_gmt":"2020-03-09T21:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51684"},"modified":"2020-03-09T16:47:46","modified_gmt":"2020-03-09T21:47:46","slug":"four-scenarios-of-how-covid-19-could-wreak-havoc-on-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51684","title":{"rendered":"Four Scenarios Of How Covid-19 Could Wreak Havoc On Global Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Four Scenarios Of How Covid-19 Could Wreak Havoc On Global Economy<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The grave risks and dangers of a globalized world of interlocking supply chains over the last four decades is starting to be realized as the crash of China’s economy<\/a> could cost the world $2.7 trillion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bloomberg Economics<\/a> says the shutdown of China’s economy could have severe implications for the rest of the world and lays out four scenarios of what could happen next: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first scenario<\/strong> is a plunge in China’s economy, with a modest spillover of economic damage in Asia Pacific countries, Europe, and the US. China is a source of demand for multinationals based across the world, and if China can reopen its economy as soon as possible, contagion can be minimized. The scenario says a “severe shock in the first half would be followed by recovery in the second. For the world as a whole, and major economies like the US, the impact would then be hard to see in the full-year GDP data.”  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The second scenario<\/strong> is the assumption that the Covid-19 outbreak worsens<\/a>, and China’s economy remains disrupted with the hopes of a V-shape recovery transforming into a U-Shape dip, which would result in localized disruptions for Asia Pacific countries and Europe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Even when factories are back to work, it’s not like all the problems are solved,” said Li Lei, the Made-in-China.com manager. “Many factories don’t have enough inventory\u2026 the supply chain obstacles cap production capacity.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The scenario assumes Asia Pacific countries like South Korea and Japan, and European countries like Germany, France, and Italy, would experience supply chain disruptions<\/a> because of the lack of parts sourced from China due to factory shutdowns. Bloomberg said in their calculations, this scenario would result in global growth at 2.3%, down from 3.1% pre-virus forecast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Four Scenarios Of How Covid-19 Could Wreak Havoc On Global Economy The grave risks and dangers of a globalized world of interlocking supply chains over the last four decades is starting to be realized as the crash of China’s economy could cost the world $2.7 trillion.  Bloomberg Economics says the shutdown of China’s economy could have severe implications […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[83,130,28817,29011,7258],"class_list":["post-51684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","tag-bloomberg","tag-china","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-viral-outbreak"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51684"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51684\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51685,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51684\/revisions\/51685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}