{"id":51634,"date":"2020-03-08T07:17:42","date_gmt":"2020-03-08T12:17:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51634"},"modified":"2020-03-08T07:17:44","modified_gmt":"2020-03-08T12:17:44","slug":"all-hospital-beds-in-the-us-will-be-filled-with-patients-by-about-may-8th-due-to-coronavirus-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51634","title":{"rendered":"All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around\u00a0May 8th<\/strong>\u00a0if the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China\u2019s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily\/Reuters)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Of note, the Straits Times<\/em> reported last week that thousands of people were waiting<\/a> for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which\u00a0you can see here<\/a>\u00a0on Twitter, or continue reading below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/strong><\/a> \u00b7 Mar 6, 2020<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think most people aren\u2019t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19<\/a> because they simply haven\u2019t run the numbers yet. Let\u2019s talk math. 1\/n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I\u2019ll address implications later of under-\/over-estimate. 2\/n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • We can expect that\u00a0we\u2019ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days<\/strong>\u00a0(this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.<\/li>
  • We\u2019re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11<\/strong>, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around\u00a0May 8th\u00a0if the virus […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[7258,4318],"class_list":["post-51634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-viral-outbreak","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51634"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51635,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51634\/revisions\/51635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}