{"id":51599,"date":"2020-03-05T19:49:52","date_gmt":"2020-03-06T00:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51599"},"modified":"2020-03-05T19:49:56","modified_gmt":"2020-03-06T00:49:56","slug":"the-greenspan-moon-cult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51599","title":{"rendered":"The Greenspan Moon Cult"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Greenspan Moon Cult<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Taking another look at what I wrote about repo<\/a> and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the \u201cwhy\u201d as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The short version: monetary authorities as well as the \u201cexperts\u201d<\/a> describe almost perfectly risk averse behavior among the central money dealing system in outbreaks like September\u2019s repo \u2013 but then bend over backward trying to come up with any<\/em><\/strong> other kind of explanation for it. The problem must be some complicated stew of otherwise benign<\/em><\/strong> technical issues because there\u2019s no possible way, they tell themselves, it can be anything else. Not with bank reserves abundantly over a trillion (now rising again) and Jay Powell pleasantly whispering in their ears about the unemployment rate every other day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It takes on religious, cult-like properties to try so hard to prove (to themselves) what has already been so thoroughly disproven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Start with the bond market and interest rates. Over the last half decade or so, ever since Janet Yellen\u2019s ill-advised first rate hike in December 2015 amidst a near recession, a move she immediately regretted, central bankers and Bond Kings have been on a mission to convince the world monetary policy was a tremendous success. It had to have been because it was the biggest thing ever devised and those devising it had promised it was so big the flood of \u201ceasing\u201d couldn\u2019t possibly fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something about a printing press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, that\u2019s not logic so much as self-delusion and rationalizing; the fallacy of sunk costs. Rather than recognize all the warning signs that it all had indeed failed, policymakers and Economists instead convinced themselves it just needed more time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Greenspan Moon Cult Taking another look at what I wrote about repo and the latest developments yesterday, it may be worthwhile to spend some additional time on the \u201cwhy\u201d as it pertains to so much determined official blindness, an unshakeable devotion to otherwise easily explained lunar events. The short version: monetary authorities as well as the \u201cexperts\u201d describe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[952,11182,124,13578,3650],"class_list":["post-51599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-alan-greenspan","tag-alhambra-investment-partners","tag-central-banks","tag-jeffrey-p-snider","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51599"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51599\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51601,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51599\/revisions\/51601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}