{"id":51465,"date":"2020-02-28T20:29:23","date_gmt":"2020-02-29T01:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51465"},"modified":"2020-02-28T20:29:28","modified_gmt":"2020-02-29T01:29:28","slug":"china-reports-catastrophic-data-pmis-crash-to-record-low-confirming-coronavirus-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51465","title":{"rendered":"China Reports Catastrophic Data: PMIs Crash To Record Low, Confirming Coronavirus Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

China Reports Catastrophic Data: PMIs Crash To Record Low, Confirming Coronavirus Collapse<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One week ago, ahead of today’s Chinese data release which would for the first time capture the devastation from the coronavirus pandemic, we wrote that “to those who have been following our series of high-frequency, daily indicators <\/a>of China’s economy, it will probably not come as a surprise that the world’s second biggest economy has ground to a halt<\/a>, its GDP set to post the first negative print in modern history. To everyone else who is just now catching up, we have some news: it’s going to be bad.”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, we said that ahead of official Chinese economic data which will soon start capturing the period when the coronavirus hit the nation, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu noted that China\u2019s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country\u2019s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI, slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!), its lowest-print on record (introduced Jan \u201914), which as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes “is pure reflection of the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.<\/em>“<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/a>What does this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As NOmura wrote, “even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week,\u00a0we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb.”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, it turns out that Nomura was optimistic, because moments ago China’s National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n