{"id":51441,"date":"2020-02-27T20:51:19","date_gmt":"2020-02-28T01:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51441"},"modified":"2020-02-27T20:51:22","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T01:51:22","slug":"peak-permian-oil-production-may-arrive-much-sooner-than-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51441","title":{"rendered":"Peak Permian Oil Production May Arrive Much Sooner Than Expected"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"page-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2020\/02\/03\/peak-permian-oil-production-schlumberger\">Peak Permian Oil Production May Arrive Much Sooner Than Expected<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/sites\/beta.desmogblog.com\/files\/styles\/full_width_blog_image\/public\/blogimages\/IMG_8524.jpg?itok=zSRiuWDW\" alt=\"Ad in Houston Airport mentioning declining Permian oilfields\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In mid-January, Adam Waterous, who operates the private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund, made a prediction about the crown jewel of the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;shale oil industry, the Permian shale play that straddles Texas and New&nbsp;Mexico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe think we are at or near peak Permian,\u201d Waterous<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-01-14\/peak-permian-oil-output-is-closer-than-you-think-investor-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThe North American oil market has been grossly overcapitalized, which is not&nbsp;sustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bloomberg reporter Simon Casey goes on to qualify that \u201c[p]redicting peak Permian output for 2020 isn\u2019t a mainstream view.\u201d However, evidence is piling up that the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;shale industry may indeed be&nbsp;close to peaking as it runs out of the two things required to continue&nbsp;increasing&nbsp;oil production:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/banks-get-tough-on-shale-loans-as-fracking-forecasts-founder-11577010600\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">money&nbsp;<\/a>and what&#8217;s known as \u201ctier one acreage.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blog.gorozen.com\/blog\/declining-tier-1-acreage-and-slowing-us-shale-oil-production\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Tier one acreage<\/a>&nbsp;is the term for the areas that produce the most oil per well. It&#8217;s also known as \u201csweet spots,\u201d \u201ccore acreage,\u201d&nbsp;or \u201cgood&nbsp;rock.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The idea of the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;shale revolution peaking long before either the broader oil and gas industry or the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/todayinenergy\/detail.php?id=42615\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Energy Information Administration<\/a>&nbsp;expects&nbsp;isn\u2019t a popular one. And the idea was even less popular when DeSmog started detailing why it was likely all the way back&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2018\/10\/30\/peak-shale-us-fracking-industry-permian-decline\">in October 2018<\/a>, and even when the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/shale-boom-is-slowing-just-when-the-world-needs-oil-most-11569795047\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Wall Street Journal<\/a>&nbsp;made the case a year&nbsp;later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, as more and more<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/permian-bankruptcies-rise-as-wall-street-s-oil-turnaround-plans-fail-1.1311694\" target=\"_blank\">\u00a0Permian oil companies go bankrupt\u00a0<\/a>and wells in the nation&#8217;s most prolific oil patch turn out less and less, one early warning nows seems especially prescient. In 2018, Paal Kibsgaard, the\u00a0CEO\u00a0of Schlumberger \u2014 one of the largest oil services providers \u2014 cautioned about declining well productivity in the Permian Basin, pointing to increasing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2018\/08\/10\/fracking-industry-cannibalizing-own-production-increasing-spill-risks\">\u201cchild wells\u201d<\/a>\u00a0and to the boom-gone-bust Texas oilfield, the Eagle Ford\u00a0Shale.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Peak Permian Oil Production May Arrive Much Sooner Than Expected In mid-January, Adam Waterous, who operates the private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund, made a prediction about the crown jewel of the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;shale oil industry, the Permian shale play that straddles Texas and New&nbsp;Mexico. \u201cWe think we are at or near peak Permian,\u201d Waterous&nbsp;told Bloomberg. \u201cThe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5317,412,11782,3640],"class_list":["post-51441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-desmog-blog","tag-hydraulic-fracturing","tag-justin-mikulka","tag-permian-basin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51441"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51442,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51441\/revisions\/51442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}