{"id":51330,"date":"2020-02-24T08:36:04","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T13:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51330"},"modified":"2020-02-24T08:36:09","modified_gmt":"2020-02-24T13:36:09","slug":"when-will-we-admit-covid-19-is-unstoppable-and-global-depression-is-inevitable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=51330","title":{"rendered":"When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"http:\/\/charleshughsmith.blogspot.com\/2020\/02\/when-will-we-admit-covid-19-is.html\">When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they&#8217;d likely include these characteristics:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>1. Highly contagious, with an R0 of 3 or higher.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>2. A novel virus, so there&#8217;s no immunity via previous exposure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>3. Those carrying the pathogen can infect others while asymptomatic, i.e. having no symptoms, for a prolonged period of time, i.e. 14 to 24 days.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>4. Some carriers never become ill and so they have no idea they are infecting others.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>5. The virus is extremely lethal to vulnerable subpopulations but not so lethal to the entire populace that it kills its hosts before they can transmit the virus to others.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>6. The virus can be spread by multiple pathways, including aerosols (droplets from sneezing\/coughing), brief contact (with hotel desk clerks, taxi drivers, etc.) and contact with surfaces (credit cards, faucets, door handles, etc.). Ideally, the virus remains active on surfaces for prolonged periods, i.e. 7+ days.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>7. Those infected who recover may catch the virus again, as acquired immunity is not 100%.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>8. As a result of this and other features, it&#8217;s difficult to manufacture a vaccine that will reliably protect against infection.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>9. The tests designed to detect the virus are inherently limited, as the virus may be present in tissue that isn&#8217;t being swabbed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>10. The symptoms of the illness are essentially identical with less contagious and lethal flu types, so people who catch the virus may not know they have the novel pathogen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable? Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they&#8217;d likely include [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4],"tags":[127,28817,29011,4650,587,7258],"class_list":["post-51330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","tag-charles-hugh-smith","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-global-depression","tag-of-two-minds","tag-viral-outbreak"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51330"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51330\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51331,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51330\/revisions\/51331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}