{"id":50282,"date":"2019-12-23T16:01:42","date_gmt":"2019-12-23T21:01:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=50282"},"modified":"2019-12-23T16:01:50","modified_gmt":"2019-12-23T21:01:50","slug":"its-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=50282","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Beginning to Look a lot Like&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hedgefundtelemetry.com\/2019\/12\/23\/its-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like\/\">IT\u2019S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE\u2026<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.hedgefundtelemetry.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/bubble.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126279\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A BUBBLE!&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the markets grind higher into the year-end the look of what is happening is becoming clear. The Fed is inflating a bubble. Valuation on the S&amp;P is approaching 19x which is up from ~14-15x a year ago. Valuation isn\u2019t a great tool for timing however when multiple expansion is accepted by the market it should be respected. Sentiment a year ago was 4% on the Daily Sentiment Charts and 3% on the CNN Fear and Greed Index and today both are extreme. They have been elevated to an extreme for the last few months and as I\u2019ve said: \u201csentiment is a condition and one must have a trigger to turn after an extreme reading.\u201d A year ago in December, I counted 240 downside DeMark buy Countdown 13\u2019s within the S&amp;P and there are only upside sell Countdowns triggering daily. I couldn\u2019t be more cautious at this point just as I couldn\u2019t have been more bullish exactly a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ve recently written about how sellers are unmotivated (as they always sell lower), and how the US-China trade watered-down deal is a sell the news event, and then how this market reminds me of a musical chairs market. I recently spoke at a wealth management conference and the overwhelming thing I heard was how they wanted to get into 2020 to sell. We might start to sell a little selling starting with $41bn of 5-yr notes being issued on 12\/24 and $32bn 7yr notes on 12\/26. This will take away some of the Fed\u2019s liquidity that has caused this bubble. At the end of the month, there will also be pension rebalancing with a rotation out of stocks into bonds. Considering the lack of liquidity it could spook some people headed into the new year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IT\u2019S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE\u2026 A BUBBLE!&nbsp; As the markets grind higher into the year-end the look of what is happening is becoming clear. The Fed is inflating a bubble. Valuation on the S&amp;P is approaching 19x which is up from ~14-15x a year ago. Valuation isn\u2019t a great tool for timing however [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1806,1849,28756,3650],"class_list":["post-50282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bubble","tag-financial-markets","tag-hedge-fund-telemetry","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50282"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50283,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50282\/revisions\/50283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}