{"id":50209,"date":"2019-12-18T21:00:03","date_gmt":"2019-12-19T02:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=50209"},"modified":"2019-12-18T21:00:10","modified_gmt":"2019-12-19T02:00:10","slug":"scientific-models-and-myths-what-is-the-difference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=50209","title":{"rendered":"Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Most people seem to think, \u201cThe difference between models and myths is that models are scientific, and myths are the conjectures of primitive people who do not have access to scientific thinking and computers. With scientific models, we have moved far beyond myths.\u201d It seems to me that the truth is quite different from this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

History shows a repeated pattern of overshoot and collapse. William Catton wrote about this issue in his highly acclaimed 1980 book, Overshoot<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figure 1. Depiction of Overshoot and Collapse\u00a0by Paul Chefurka<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

What politicians, economists, and academic book publishers would like us to believe is that the world is full of limitless possibilities. World population can continue to rise. World leaders are in charge. Our big problem, if we believe today\u2019s models, is that humans are consuming fossil fuel at too high a rate. If we cannot quickly transition to a low carbon economy, perhaps based on wind, solar and hydroelectric, the climate will change uncontrollably. The problem will then be\u00a0all our fault<\/em>.\u00a0The story, supposedly based on scientific models, has almost become a new religion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent Attempted Shifts to Wind, Solar and Hydroelectric Are Working Poorly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, if we check to see what has happened when economies have actually attempted to switch to wind, water and hydroelectric, we see one bad outcome after another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] Australia\u2019s attempt to put renewable electricity on the grid has sent electricity prices skyrocketing and resulted in increased blackouts. It has been said that intermittent electricity has \u201cwrecked the grid\u201d in Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n