{"id":49698,"date":"2019-11-18T08:26:17","date_gmt":"2019-11-18T13:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49698"},"modified":"2019-11-18T08:26:21","modified_gmt":"2019-11-18T13:26:21","slug":"if-not-qe-is-qe-then-is-not-a-blowoff-top-a-blowoff-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49698","title":{"rendered":"If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When is “Not-QE” QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE.<\/strong>\u00a0We can constructively recall the story that\u00a0Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

:<\/a>‘If I should call a sheep’s tail a leg, how many legs would it have?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

”Five.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

”No, only four; for my calling the tail a leg would not make it so.’<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calling QE not-QE doesn’t make it different than QE, but it does communicate the Fed’s panicky desire to mask its stupendous injection of financial cocaine into the financial system.<\/strong>\u00a0The Fed’s level of panic is noteworthy, as is the absurd transparency of its laughable attempt to conceal its panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the same fashion, the financial media is loudly declaring the current blowoff top in stocks is not a blowoff top. The delicious irony here is these denials are reliable markers of blowoff tops<\/strong>: the louder the denials, the greater the odds that this is in fact the blowoff top that many pundits have been expecting for some time, but always in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Garsh darn it, maybe the future has arrived.<\/strong>\u00a0The financial media denied the Q4 1999 – Q1 2000 blowoff top was a blowoff top, and it repeated its denial of a blowoff top in housing in 2006-2007. The pundits of 1929 also denied the Q3 blowoff top in stocks was a blowoff top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want a reliable signal that the blowoff top has peaked, listen to the screechy adamance of the deniers.<\/strong>\u00a0The list of reasons why blowoff tops can’t be blowoff tops is practically endless: sentiment isn’t bullish enough, there’s a Wall of Worry for stocks to climb (overlooking the inconvenient reality that there is always a Wall of Worry)…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top? Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is “Not-QE” QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE.\u00a0We can constructively recall the story […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[127,303,587,662],"class_list":["post-49698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-charles-hugh-smith","tag-fed","tag-of-two-minds","tag-quantitative-easing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49698"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49699,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49698\/revisions\/49699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}