{"id":49112,"date":"2019-10-23T13:46:50","date_gmt":"2019-10-23T18:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49112"},"modified":"2019-10-23T13:46:57","modified_gmt":"2019-10-23T18:46:57","slug":"market-commentary-china-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49112","title":{"rendered":"Market Commentary: China Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"http:\/\/creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com\/2019\/10\/market-commentary-china-watch.html\">Market Commentary: China Watch<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S.\/China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a catalyst for Chinese financial instability. And there remains a high probability for an eruption of Chinese disorder to quickly reverberate through global markets and economies. To be sure, rapidly deteriorating U.S.\/China relations were a major contributor to this summer\u2019s global yield collapse and bond market dislocation.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At this point, I\u2019ll assume some \u201cphase 1\u201d deal gets drafted and then signed by Presidents Trump and Xi next month in Chile. In the grand scheme of things, little will have been resolved. It appears many of the most critical issues between the world\u2019s two rival superpowers have been excluded from the initial compromise, I\u2019ll assume tabled for some time to come. Short-term focused markets are content with a \u201ctruce,\u201d welcoming a period of reduced risk of a rapid escalation of tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps near-term financial risks have subsided in China. A counter argument would point out that Beijing\u2019s push to improve its negotiating position forced officials to once again hit the Credit accelerator. Did Beijing push its luck too far? I would point to the $1 TN of additional household (chiefly mortgage) debt accumulated over the past year. China\u2019s Household borrowings were up 15.9% in one year, 37% in two, 69% in three and 138% in five years. Importantly, Beijing\u2019s stimulus efforts stoked China\u2019s historic mortgage finance and apartment Bubbles already well into \u201cTerminal Phase\u201d excess. How deeply have fraud and shenanigans permeated Chinese housing finance? Similar to P2P and corporate finance?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Commentary: China Watch I\u2019ve held the view that Chinese finance has been at the epicenter of international market unease. The U.S.\/China trade war was not the predominant global risk. However, it has had the potential to become a catalyst for Chinese financial instability. And there remains a high probability for an eruption of Chinese [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5185,130,7756,195,805,827],"class_list":["post-49112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bond-market","tag-china","tag-credit-bubble-bulletin","tag-debt","tag-trade","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49112"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49113,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49112\/revisions\/49113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}