{"id":49037,"date":"2019-10-19T15:21:42","date_gmt":"2019-10-19T20:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49037"},"modified":"2019-10-19T15:21:51","modified_gmt":"2019-10-19T20:21:51","slug":"uncertainties-following-the-abqaiq-attack-have-shrunk-the-worlds-safe-oil-reserves-by-around-half-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=49037","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world\u2019s safe oil reserves by around half (part 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world\u2019s safe oil reserves by around half (part 1)<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The world has returned to business as usual after the Saudis assured oil markets that production will be back soon and as oil prices have returned to pre-attack levels and even lower, indicating that oil traders focus on a weak global economic outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig 1: Abqaiq\u2019s oil price spike<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Fig2: Saudi crude oil production drop after the Abqaiq attack<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The peak oil barrel blog monitors OPEC\u2019s oil production and published the above graph for September 2019, using data from OPEC\u2019s Monthly Oil Market Report. The drop from around 9,800 kb\/d to 8,500 kb\/d translates into an approximate loss in September of 40 mb Arab Light.  Saudi oil stocks were 180 mb before the attack. Maybe tanks are filled with partially processed oil with a high sulfur content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s oil exports<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

From the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report dated 12\/9\/2019 (2 days before the Abqaiq attack):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig 3: US ended sanction waivers in May 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\nhttps:\/\/www.iea.org\/media\/omrreports\/fullissues\/2019-09-12.pdf\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The data on Iranian oil exports are fuzzy. On 13 Sep 2019 S&P Global Platts reported 424 kb\/d in August (mainly to China and Syria) but warns that Iranian storage is filling up quickly, including 50 mb on tankers (mostly condensate). During the last round of sanctions in 2016 storage reached 55-60 mb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fig 4: Iranian oil exports by Platts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/platts\/en\/market-insights\/latest-news\/oil\/091319-analysis-iran-builds-50-mil-barrel-oil-armada-as-exports-plunge\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In July 2019 the Atlantic Council calculated in an article entitled<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Crude Oil Exports: What Minimum Is Enough to Stay Afloat?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

that Iran needs to export 1.5 mb\/d to balance the budget and 720 Kb\/d as an absolute minimum in survival mode (withdrawals from the National Development Fund, foreign exchange and gold reserves)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Iran\u2019s crude oil exports: what minimum is enough to stay afloat?<\/a><\/blockquote>