{"id":48776,"date":"2019-10-02T15:18:48","date_gmt":"2019-10-02T20:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48776"},"modified":"2019-10-02T15:18:54","modified_gmt":"2019-10-02T20:18:54","slug":"the-attacks-on-abqaiq-and-peak-oil-in-ghawar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48776","title":{"rendered":"The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/the-attacks-on-abqaiq-and-peak-oil-in-ghawar\">The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/Abqaiq-attack-prayer-time.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10176\"\/><figcaption>Fig 1: The attackers hit at Fajr prayer time<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Houthi rebels claim drone attacks on Saudi Aramco refineries\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sw_IwRPUZOQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the late Houston based investment banker Matt Simmons wrote his 2005 book \u201cTwilight in the desert, the coming Saudi oil shock and the World economy\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/TwilightInTheDesert.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3606\"\/><figcaption>Fig 2: Matt Simmons\u2019 book<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">he could not have imagined that Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a pre-dawn drone &amp; missile attack on a plant in Abqaiq, processing oil from Ghawar, the very oil field Matt had warned suffered from high water cut rates and could not maintain production rates of 5 mb\/d (chapter 7).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of Matt\u2019s slide shows is here:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/Ghawar-structure-Simmons.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10180\"\/><figcaption>Fig 3: Ghawar\u2019s properties worsen from North to South<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, Saudi Aramco\u2019s prospectus for the London Stock Exchange (Initial Public Offering IPO), published in April 2019, has Ghawar producing a sustainable maximum of only 3.8 mb\/d, 1.2 mb\/d less than was generally assumed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/Aramco_claimed_reserves_MSC_Dec2018-1024x691.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10182\"\/><figcaption>Fig 4: extract from Saudi Aramco\u2019s prospectus<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the prospectus, the maximum sustainable oil production capacity (MSC) from the first 3 fields (affected by the attacks) &nbsp;in the above table should be 3.8 + 1 + 1.45 = 6.25 mb\/d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/crudeoilpeak.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/Abqaiq_Khurais_Ghawar_Shaybah.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10185\"\/><figcaption>Fig 5: Graph from the same prospectus showing how Abqaiq is connected to Ghawar, Khurais and Shaybah oil fields<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar When the late Houston based investment banker Matt Simmons wrote his 2005 book \u201cTwilight in the desert, the coming Saudi oil shock and the World economy\u201d he could not have imagined that Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a pre-dawn drone &amp; missile attack on a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6292,25883,27289,701],"class_list":["post-48776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-ghawar","tag-matt-simmons","tag-saudi-arabia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48776"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48778,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48776\/revisions\/48778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}