{"id":48630,"date":"2019-09-24T07:57:56","date_gmt":"2019-09-24T12:57:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48630"},"modified":"2019-09-24T07:58:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-24T12:58:00","slug":"four-collision-courses-for-the-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48630","title":{"rendered":"Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/playing-chicken-with-global-economy-trump-china-iran-argentina-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-09\">Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Between US President Donald Trump&#8217;s zero-sum disputes with China and Iran, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson&#8217;s brinkmanship with Parliament and the European Union, and Argentina&#8217;s likely return to Peronist populism, the fate of the global economy is balancing on a knife edge. Any of these scenarios could lead to a crisis with rapid spillover effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NEW YORK \u2013 In the classic game of \u201cchicken,\u201d two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the \u201closer.\u201d If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are now several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis. The first and most important\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/onpoint\/the-coming-sino-american-bust-up-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-06\">contest<\/a>\u00a0is between the United States and China over trade and technology. The second is the brewing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/europe-conflict-with-trump-over-iran-by-mark-leonard-2019-08\">dispute<\/a>\u00a0between the US and Iran. In Europe, there is the escalating\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/brexit-boris-johnson-european-union-deal-by-mark-malloch-brown-2019-09\">brinkmanship<\/a>\u00a0between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union over Brexit. Finally, there is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/bigpicture\/argentina-again\">Argentina<\/a>, which could end up on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund after the likely victory of the Peronist Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez in next month\u2019s residential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy Between US President Donald Trump&#8217;s zero-sum disputes with China and Iran, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson&#8217;s brinkmanship with Parliament and the European Union, and Argentina&#8217;s likely return to Peronist populism, the fate of the global economy is balancing on a knife edge. Any of these scenarios could lead [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[366,1917,8402],"class_list":["post-48630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-global-economy","tag-nouriel-roubini","tag-project-syndicate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48630"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48631,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48630\/revisions\/48631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}