{"id":48335,"date":"2019-09-08T06:08:16","date_gmt":"2019-09-08T11:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48335"},"modified":"2019-09-08T06:08:19","modified_gmt":"2019-09-08T11:08:19","slug":"heres-what-im-worried-about-and-its-not-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48335","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s What I\u2019m Worried About. And It\u2019s Not a Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2019\/09\/04\/heres-what-im-worried-about-and-its-not-a-recession\/\">Here\u2019s What I\u2019m Worried About. And It\u2019s Not a Recession <\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A rout in the hyper-inflated bond market can blow up everything at this point.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The locker room at my swim club has become the litmus test. When a complex topic, after years of being absent or ignored, suddenly crops up in conversation, and not just sporadically but all the time, it means that there is some kind of peaking going on. This suddenly hot topic now is a \u201ccoming recession.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just about everyone is talking about it. This means that fears of a recession or thoughts of a recession have now penetrated into the core of the previously recession-free zone: the swim-club locker room. It means that these recession fears might be peaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It makes sense. Recession-fear headlines are popping up everywhere. You cannot escape the drama. It\u2019s not that there is a recession in the United States \u2013 far from it. It\u2019s all about a&nbsp;coming&nbsp;recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And another term has penetrated into the musty locker room at my swim club, perhaps for the first time ever in its illustrious 100-plus-year history: \u201cInverted yield curve.\u201d<ins><\/ins><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People who didn\u2019t care about it, who never cared about it, and who don\u2019t know what it is, who don\u2019t even really understand what a bond yield is, and who don\u2019t really want to know what it is \u2013 in other words,&nbsp;perfectly&nbsp;sane people&nbsp;that have other things to worry about \u2013 are suddenly fretting about the inverted yield curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They\u2019re fretting about it because everyone else is fretting about it. And every time the inverted yield curve comes up, recession talk is attached to it. But there\u2019s a lot more to it than meets the eye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a survey released this week by the National Association of Realtors, 36% of active homebuyers \u2013 so people actively trying to buy a home \u2013 said they expect a recession starting next year, up from 30% a few months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s What I\u2019m Worried About. And It\u2019s Not a Recession A rout in the hyper-inflated bond market can blow up everything at this point. The locker room at my swim club has become the litmus test. When a complex topic, after years of being absent or ignored, suddenly crops up in conversation, and not just [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5185,827,4254,4255,10388],"class_list":["post-48335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bond-market","tag-united-states","tag-wolf-richter","tag-wolfstreet","tag-yield-curve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48335"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48336,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48335\/revisions\/48336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}