{"id":48309,"date":"2019-09-06T19:21:03","date_gmt":"2019-09-07T00:21:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48309"},"modified":"2019-09-06T19:21:05","modified_gmt":"2019-09-07T00:21:05","slug":"these-are-not-signs-of-a-healthy-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=48309","title":{"rendered":"These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If these three charts reflect a “normal” “healthy” Bull market, then why are they so uncommon? <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look “normal” to you?<\/strong> Let’s take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, let’s look at three different assets: stocks, bonds and one of the precious metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the most cursory glance reveals there is nothing normal about any of these charts.<\/strong> The recent action in the SPX is anything but normal: yet another announcement of yet another (low-level nothing-burger) trade meeting opens a gap big enough for a semi to drive through, punching through the upper Bollinger Band, and on the heels of a previous big gap up, also on no fundamental news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look at August: if a month of nearly daily open gaps and manic swings is “normal,” why are such periods so uncommon in “normal” rallies?<\/strong> Looking at August’s wild schizophrenia, does this strike you as “normal” market action in an ongoing Bull market? If so, perhaps you should dial back your Ibogaine consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Next up, TLT, the US Treasury long bond.<\/strong> You know, the “safe” long bond, which moves glacially compared to risk-on stocks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we dare to be honest (risky in a world terrified of honesty), this looks like the blow-off topping move of risk-on bitcoin in December 2017.<\/strong> There is nothing “normal” about this parabolic move in Treasury bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

 \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market If these three charts reflect a “normal” “healthy” Bull market, then why are they so uncommon?  The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[127,587,647],"class_list":["post-48309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-charles-hugh-smith","tag-of-two-minds","tag-precious-metals"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48309"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48310,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48309\/revisions\/48310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}