{"id":47255,"date":"2019-07-16T08:42:30","date_gmt":"2019-07-16T13:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=47255"},"modified":"2019-07-16T08:44:11","modified_gmt":"2019-07-16T13:44:11","slug":"recession-looms-cass-freight-index-negative-for-7th-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=47255","title":{"rendered":"Recession Looms: Cass Freight Index Negative for 7th Month"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/moneymaven.io\/mishtalk\/economics\/recession-looms-cass-freight-index-negative-for-7th-month-uZztn4xxWEC0cBH8rFm7EA\/\">Recession Looms: Cass Freight Index Negative for 7th Month<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F8FLunAKIsUKx8aT-Sj6GTQ\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Cass, &#8220;Freight shipments signal economic contraction&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cassinfo.com\/hubfs\/Freight%20Payment%20\/Transportation%20Indexes\/Cass%20Freight%20Index\/Reports\/Cass%20Freight%20Index%20Report%20-%20June%202019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Economic Outlook from Freight\u2019s Perspective<\/a>&nbsp;is not promising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>With the -5.3% drop in June following the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from last month: the shipments index has gone from \u201cwarning of a potential slowdown\u201d to \u201csignaling an economic contraction.\u201d<\/li><li>May and June\u2019s drops are significant enough to pose the question, \u201cWill the Q2 \u201919 GDP be negative?\u201d<\/li><li>We acknowledge that all of these negative percentages are against extremely tough comparisons; and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP.<\/li><li>The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, strengthens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes. Weakness in commodity prices and the decline in interest rates have joined the chorus of signals calling for an economic contraction.<\/li><li>We are concerned about the severe declines in international airfreight volumes (especially in Asia) and the ongoing swoon in railroad volumes, especially in auto and building materials.<\/li><li>We see the weakness in spot market pricing for transportation services, especially in trucking, as consistent with and a confirmation of the negative trend in the Cass Shipments Index.<\/li><li>As volumes of chemical shipments have lost momentum, our concerns of the global slowdown spreading to the U.S., and the trade dispute reaching a \u2018point of no return\u2019 from an economic perspective, grow.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>European Airfreight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/maven-user-photos\/mishtalk\/economics\/zmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q\/aB1UNATOqUCvLBZMUDGhKg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2FaB1UNATOqUCvLBZMUDGhKg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>European airfreight volumes have been negative since March 2018, but only by a small single-digit margins (-1% to -3%), until November 2018. Unfortunately, since then, volumes have started to further deteriorate. Our European Airfreight Index was down a concerning -7.2% in April, only down -2.6% in May, before dropping -7.9% in June. Although by itself distressing, it\u2019s the Asian data that has become the most alarming.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recession Looms: Cass Freight Index Negative for 7th Month According to Cass, &#8220;Freight shipments signal economic contraction&#8221;. The&nbsp;Economic Outlook from Freight\u2019s Perspective&nbsp;is not promising. With the -5.3% drop in June following the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from last month: the shipments index has gone from \u201cwarning of a potential slowdown\u201d to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[26282,14648,13390],"class_list":["post-47255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-cass-freight-index","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47255"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47258,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47255\/revisions\/47258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}