{"id":46995,"date":"2019-06-29T08:46:03","date_gmt":"2019-06-29T13:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=46995"},"modified":"2019-06-29T09:28:59","modified_gmt":"2019-06-29T14:28:59","slug":"weekly-commentary-history-rhymes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=46995","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Commentary: History Rhymes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"http:\/\/creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com\/2019\/06\/weekly-commentary-history-rhymes.html\">Weekly Commentary: History Rhymes<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump and President Xi are meeting in Osaka as I write. We\u2019ll know much more in the morning. Pre-meeting reports had the two sides agreeing to a \u201ctruce.\u201d Heading into the meeting, President Trump said progress was made in Friday trade talk preparations, as he seeks to \u201ceven it up\u201d on trade. I\u2019ll assume both sides would prefer to convey a constructive meeting and a positive framework for restarting trade negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having attained a head of steam, a positive outcome could provide additional juice to the equities rally. Sovereign bond markets, enjoying even stronger momentum, may have to think twice. Is the market\u2019s 100% probability for a July rate cut justifiable in the event of market exuberance in response to improved prospects for a successful completion of trade negotiations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There was definitely some push back to market expectations for an imminent start to a rate cut cycle. At least a few Fed officials are not oblivious to the risk of bowing to rate cut pressures:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>June 25 \u2013 New York Times (Jeanna Smialek): \u201cJerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said\u2026 that the central bank is weighing whether an interest-rate cut will be needed as trade risks stir economic uncertainty and inflation lags. But he made clear that the institution considers itself independent from the White House and President Trump, who continues to push publicly for a rate cut. Mr. Powell said the case for a rate cut has strengthened somewhat given that economic \u2018crosscurrents have re-emerged, with apparent progress on trade turning to greater uncertainty and with incoming data raising renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy.\u2019 But he stopped short of saying a cut was guaranteed, noting that the Fed would continue to watch economic events unfold and would avoid reacting to short-term issues.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weekly Commentary: History Rhymes President Trump and President Xi are meeting in Osaka as I write. We\u2019ll know much more in the morning. Pre-meeting reports had the two sides agreeing to a \u201ctruce.\u201d Heading into the meeting, President Trump said progress was made in Friday trade talk preparations, as he seeks to \u201ceven it up\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7844,16861,1849,6392],"class_list":["post-46995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-donald-trump","tag-doug-noland","tag-financial-markets","tag-xi-jinping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46995"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46996,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46995\/revisions\/46996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}