{"id":46964,"date":"2019-06-28T06:51:16","date_gmt":"2019-06-28T11:51:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=46964"},"modified":"2019-06-28T06:51:20","modified_gmt":"2019-06-28T11:51:20","slug":"paul-singer-warns-a-40-market-crash-is-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=46964","title":{"rendered":"Paul Singer Warns A 40% Market Crash Is Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-06-27\/paul-singer-warns-40-market-crash-coming\">Paul Singer Warns A 40% Market Crash Is Coming<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier today, in a stark reversal from its traditionally cheerful demeanor, a Goldman Sachs strategist warned that &nbsp;&#8220;purely based on elevated equity valuations, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 Shiller P\/E, and current growth, according to our US Current Activity Indicator (CAI), the risk of an equity drawdown of more than 10%&#8221;, i.e. a sharp market drop, or for lack of a better word, crash, &#8220;is the highest since the GFC.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/drawdown%20risk%20q2%202019.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, Goldman wasn&#8217;t the only one to see a major market selloff in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival, billionaire investor and Elliott Management founder, Paul Singer,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-06-27\/elliott-s-paul-singer-sees-global-market-slump-ahead?srnd=premium\">warned that the global economy is heading toward&nbsp;<\/a>a &#8220;significant market downturn&#8221; cautioning that &#8220;the global financial system is very much toward the risky end of the spectrum.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While Paul Singer&#8217;s traditionally downcast outlook is hardly surprising, as it permeates every investor letter published by the successful investor who has been particularly clear in the past decade that the Fed&#8217;s monetary experiment will end terribly, he sees two particular reasons why the economy is approaching a tipping point: &#8220;<strong>global debt is at an all-time high. Derivatives are at an all-time high and it took all of this monetary easing to get to where we are today and I don&#8217;t think central bankers, or policymakers or academics are in any better shape to predict the next downturn and I think we are the high end of the risk spectrum.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He then ominously added that &#8220;<strong>I&#8217;m expecting the possibility of a significant market downturn.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Z5Mqb8azXWI\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>How bad would the crash be? According to the Elliott Management CEO, there will be a market &#8220;correction&#8221; of 30% to 40% when the downturn hits, although unlike Goldman &#8211; which gave a timeline of 12 months in which the next major market will materialize, Singer said he couldn\u2019t predict the timing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Paul Singer Warns A 40% Market Crash Is Coming Earlier today, in a stark reversal from its traditionally cheerful demeanor, a Goldman Sachs strategist warned that &nbsp;&#8220;purely based on elevated equity valuations, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 Shiller P\/E, and current growth, according to our US Current Activity Indicator (CAI), the risk of an [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1668,1603,4318],"class_list":["post-46964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-derivatives","tag-global-financial-system","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46964"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46964\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46965,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46964\/revisions\/46965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}