{"id":45084,"date":"2019-04-06T07:17:08","date_gmt":"2019-04-06T12:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=45084"},"modified":"2019-04-06T07:17:10","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T12:17:10","slug":"as-the-madness-turns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=45084","title":{"rendered":"As the Madness Turns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/?p=54213\">As the Madness Turns<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Growing Gap<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first quarter of 2019 is over and done.&nbsp; But before we say good riddance.&nbsp; Some reflection is in order.&nbsp; To this we offer two discrete metrics.&nbsp; Gross domestic product and government debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2019\/04\/1-Nominal-GDP-vs-Federal-Debt.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2019\/04\/1-Nominal-GDP-vs-Federal-Debt-1024x611.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54214\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US nominal GDP vs total federal debt (in millions of USD) \u2013 government debt has exceeded&nbsp; total economic output for the first time in Q4 2012 and since then its relative growth trajectory has increased \u2013 and it seems the gap is set to widen further. [PT]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GDP for the quarter, as estimated by the March 29 update to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/medialibrary\/media\/research\/policy\/nowcast\/nowcast_2019_0329.pdf?la=en\">New York Fed\u2019s GDP Nowcast<\/a>, grew at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent.&nbsp; For perspective, annualized GDP growth of 1.3 percent is akin to getting a 1.3 percent annual raise.&nbsp; Ask any working stiff, and they\u2019ll tell you\u2026 a 1.3 percent raise is effectively nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By comparison, the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2019 is estimated to hit roughly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebalance.com\/us-deficit-by-year-3306306\">$1.1 trillion<\/a>.&nbsp; This amounts to an approximate 5 percent increase of the current&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.usdebtclock.org\/\">$22.2 trillion<\/a>&nbsp;national debt.&nbsp; In other words, government debt is increasing about 3.85 times faster than nominal GDP, which is about&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebalance.com\/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-how-to-use-them-3306041\">$21 trillion<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These two metrics offer a rough perspective on the state of the economy.&nbsp; Deficit spending is grossly outpacing economic growth.&nbsp; Heavy treatments of fiscal stimulus are being applied. &nbsp;Yet the economy\u2019s practically running in place. &nbsp;In short, the state of the economy is not well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2019\/04\/shackled.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2019\/04\/shackled-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54217\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A case of restricted maneuverability\u2026&nbsp; [PT]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And as the economy slows and then slips into reverse later this year, and as Washington then applies more fiscal stimulus, these two metrics will move even further towards madness.&nbsp; What\u2019s more, the Fed is gearing up to promote this greater state of madness in any and every way possible\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the Madness Turns A Growing Gap The first quarter of 2019 is over and done.&nbsp; But before we say good riddance.&nbsp; Some reflection is in order.&nbsp; To this we offer two discrete metrics.&nbsp; Gross domestic product and government debt. US nominal GDP vs total federal debt (in millions of USD) \u2013 government debt has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,195,353,11763],"class_list":["post-45084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-debt","tag-gdp","tag-mn-gordon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45084"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45085,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45084\/revisions\/45085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}