{"id":45019,"date":"2019-04-04T09:36:30","date_gmt":"2019-04-04T14:36:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=45019"},"modified":"2019-04-04T09:36:34","modified_gmt":"2019-04-04T14:36:34","slug":"zombified-economy-what-will-the-next-recession-look-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=45019","title":{"rendered":"Zombified Economy: What Will the Next Recession Look Like?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/moneymaven.io\/mishtalk\/economics\/zombified-economy-what-will-the-next-recession-look-like-PQgSJIoewk6PqF53bkxpIg\/\">Zombified Economy: What Will the Next Recession Look Like?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2FjYDhu-6lYUOtTZqgy8cwIg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The short answer is nothing like the last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you search for &#8220;next recession&#8221; numerous ideas pop up. Many believe there will not be a recession soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Condition Comparison<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conditions are radically different than in 2007 and 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed re-blew a housing price bubble but the number of jobs tied to construction, sales, CDOs, agents and even the impact on banks is a shell of what happened then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Technology is bubbly, but not like 2000. This is how I see things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>We will not have bank failures in the US.<\/li><li>There will be major bank failures or bail-ins in Europe.<\/li><li>Housing will not have a major role but will strengthen the recession.<\/li><li>Millennials simply cannot afford houses so housing will not lead a Fed attempt at a recovery even if interest rates plunge.<\/li><li>Low interest rates will keep zombie companies alive for a while longer .<\/li><li>Proliferation of retail stores, Walmart, Target, everything requires minimum staffing levels no matter how poor sales become.<\/li><li>Unemployment will not rise much like last time. Instead, expect to see hours cut.Also expect for many of those currently working two jobs to lose one of them.<\/li><li>Retail sales will plunge with the reduction in work.<\/li><li>The impact of the above is very weak profits but not massive labor disruption<\/li><li>Stocks will get clobbered as earnings take a huge hit.<\/li><li>Junk bonds also get clobbered on fears of rolling over debt.<\/li><li>This malaise can potentially last for years.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Zombified Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan is in a state of zombification and Europe is on the verge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US may not and likely will not go through Japanese-like extremes just yet. However, the demography setup is poor, the student debt problem is a huge overhang, boomers unprepared for retirement is a huge overhang, and pensions are a huge overhang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zombified Economy: What Will the Next Recession Look Like? The short answer is nothing like the last. If you search for &#8220;next recession&#8221; numerous ideas pop up. Many believe there will not be a recession soon. Condition Comparison Conditions are radically different than in 2007 and 2000. The Fed re-blew a housing price bubble but [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[303,14648,13390,534,1264],"class_list":["post-45019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-fed","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk","tag-monetary-policy","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45019"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45019\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45020,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45019\/revisions\/45020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}