{"id":44723,"date":"2019-03-24T17:10:41","date_gmt":"2019-03-24T22:10:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=44723"},"modified":"2019-03-24T17:10:43","modified_gmt":"2019-03-24T22:10:43","slug":"the-reckoning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=44723","title":{"rendered":"The Reckoning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/03\/24\/the-reckoning\/\">The Reckoning<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/reckoning.png?ssl=1\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/reckoning.png?resize=151%2C90&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59862\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/03\/21\/recession-is-coming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>The Coming Recession<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s full frontal capitulation by the Fed has not only removed a key buying carrot, but also has brought about the inversion of the yield curve, a classic confirming warning sign that a recession is coming. The key question of course: The when and the how. Bulls will want to hope the recession is at least another year or two away to engage participants in a final game of musical chairs before the rug gets pulled. Bears will point to structural forces and factors that suggest that a recession may come a lot sooner than anyone expects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this edition of the Weekly Market Brief I\u2019ll outline some key macro risk factors and dissect some key technical developments I think everyone should be aware of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before I do that a quick announcement: After considering all the feedback I\u2019ve received (thanks by the way) I\u2019ve decided to continue to provide a video component as part of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/category\/weekly-market-brief\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Weekly Market Briefs<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;whenever possible. They truly help provide context and color to the charts. If you want get notifications of the videos you can subscribe via my channel here:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UC-_tUpRdhh7Qc3vn6FFbhGw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NT YouTube Channel<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now onto markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s me get something straight here: Bulls continue to be wrong on the macro and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/02\/15\/bears-are-right\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>bears continue to be right<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fact: All the glorious projections made by bulls about growth and earnings continue to get overrun by the deteriorating macro reality. The same folks that didn\u2019t forecast the 2015\/2016 earnings recession also didn\u2019t predict the 2019 earnings recession (or the 2018 20% market drubbing for that matter) and are once again clinging to dovish central banks to bail them out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reckoning The big macro wheels are turning and everybody better pay very close attention. The Reckoning is coming. Best hope for a substantive China trade deal and a last minute save on Brexit to perhaps delay the inevitable:&nbsp;The Coming Recession. This week\u2019s full frontal capitulation by the Fed has not only removed a key [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,7542,1264,23808,3650],"class_list":["post-44723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-northman-trader","tag-recession","tag-sven-henrich","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44723","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44723"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44723\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44724,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44723\/revisions\/44724"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}