{"id":4427,"date":"2015-01-12T19:30:18","date_gmt":"2015-01-13T00:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=4427"},"modified":"2015-01-12T19:30:18","modified_gmt":"2015-01-13T00:30:18","slug":"at-last-the-experts-wake-up-to-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=4427","title":{"rendered":"At Last The \u2018Experts\u2019 Wake Up To Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

At Last The \u2018Experts\u2019 Wake Up To Oil<\/a><\/h3>\n

Boy, did the \u2018experts\u2019 and \u2018analysts\u2019 drop the ball on this one, or what\u2019s the story. Only today, Goldman\u2019s highly paid analysts admitted they\u2019ve been dead wrong from months, that their prediction that OPEC would cut production will not happen, and that therefore oil may go as low as $40. Anyone have any idea what that miss has cost Goldman\u2019s clients? And now of course other \u2018experts\u2019 \u2013 prone to herd behavior \u2013 \u2018adjust\u2019 their expectations as well.<\/p>\n

They all have consistently underestimated three things: the drop in global oil demand, the impact QE had on commodity prices, and the \u2018power\u2019 OPEC has. Everyone kept on talking, over the past 3 months, as oil went from $75 \u2013 couldn\u2019t go lower than that, could it? \u2013 to today\u2019s $46, about how OPEC and the Saudis were going to have to cut output or else, but they never understood the position OPEC countries are in. Which is that they don\u2019t have anything near the power they had in 1973 or 1986, but that completely escaped all analysts and experts and media. Everyone still thinks China is growing at a 7%+ clip, but the only numbers that sort of thing is based on come from .. China. As for QE, need I say anymore, or anything at all?<\/p>\n

So Goldman today says oil will drop to $40, but Goldman was spectacularly wrong until now, so why believe them this time around? As oil prices plunged from $75 in mid november all the way to $45 today (about a 40% drop, more like 55% from June 2014\u2032s $102), their analysts kept saying OPEC and the Saudis would cut output. Didn\u2019t happen. As I said several times since last fall, OPEC saw the new reality before anyone else. But why did it still take 2 months+ for the \u2018experts\u2019 and \u2018analysts\u2019 to catch up? I would almost wonder how many of these smart guys bet against their clients in the meantime.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At Last The \u2018Experts\u2019 Wake Up To Oil Boy, did the \u2018experts\u2019 and \u2018analysts\u2019 drop the ball on this one, or what\u2019s the story. Only today, Goldman\u2019s highly paid analysts admitted they\u2019ve been dead wrong from months, that their prediction that OPEC would cut production will not happen, and that therefore oil may go as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[130,263,376,1775,595,661,701],"class_list":["post-4427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-china","tag-energy","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-oil-price-collapse","tag-oil-production","tag-qe","tag-saudi-arabia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4427"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4428,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4427\/revisions\/4428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}