{"id":43994,"date":"2019-02-24T18:16:13","date_gmt":"2019-02-24T23:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43994"},"modified":"2019-02-24T18:16:15","modified_gmt":"2019-02-24T23:16:15","slug":"highway-to-the-danger-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43994","title":{"rendered":"Highway to the Danger Zone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/02\/24\/highway-to-the-danger-zone\/\">Highway to the Danger Zone<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/danger-zone.png?ssl=1\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/danger-zone.png?resize=207%2C96&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-58705\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday markets nearly broke their uptrend from the December lows, but once again a magic Friday overnight gap up driven by renewed hopes for an imminent China-US trade deal and supported by 9 Fed speakers trampling all over themselves to out dove each other alongside a flood of buyback money accelerated markets to a new weekly closing high. I say again because markets have become as boring as predictable: 9 weeks of consecutive gains, 9 risk free Fridays associated with a persistent crush of volatility and a virtual non existence of 2 way price discovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the trifecta of dovish central banks, hopes for a China trade deal, and a massive acceleration in buybacks that keep pushing markets higher on an ever narrowing highway to the danger zone and investors are throwing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/02\/17\/caution-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>caution<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;to the wind despite a continued deterioration in the global macro economic data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From my perch nothing\u2019s changed in the larger outlook and the rally is to be viewed with extreme caution and I recognize that I\u2019m probably one of last people still out there raising any concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wall Street is now massively bullish with nearly half of analysts calling for new highs into the 2950-3250 $SPX range later into this year. And, frankly, as long as the trifecta maintains control over price who is to argue otherwise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After all, market performance has been a key driver of the Fed\u2019s decision to reverse policy, not only hinted at in the Fed minutes, but explicitly outlined by Fed governor Bullard this week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cWe did get a bad reaction in financial markets. I think the market started to think we were too hawkish, might cause a recession\u2026I think all of this weighed on the committee and got people to change their thinking\u2026.the normalization process in the United States is coming to an end\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Highway to the Danger Zone On Thursday markets nearly broke their uptrend from the December lows, but once again a magic Friday overnight gap up driven by renewed hopes for an imminent China-US trade deal and supported by 9 Fed speakers trampling all over themselves to out dove each other alongside a flood of buyback [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[124,303,7542,23808,827],"class_list":["post-43994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-banks","tag-fed","tag-northman-trader","tag-sven-henrich","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43994"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43994\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43995,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43994\/revisions\/43995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}