{"id":43801,"date":"2019-02-14T11:06:11","date_gmt":"2019-02-14T16:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43801"},"modified":"2019-02-14T11:09:59","modified_gmt":"2019-02-14T16:09:59","slug":"what-caused-the-recession-of-2019-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43801","title":{"rendered":"What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"http:\/\/charleshughsmith.blogspot.com\/2019\/02\/what-caused-recession-of-2019-2021.html\">What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The banquet of consequences is now being served, but the good seats have all been taken.<\/em><strong>As I discussed in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oftwominds.com\/blogfeb19\/sell-everything2-19.html\">We&#8217;re Overdue for a Sell-Everything\/No-Fed-Rescue Recession<\/a>, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause.<\/strong>\u00a0The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered by excesses of speculation and debt (2000 and 2008) or inflation (1980).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Structural causes are imbalances that build up over time:<\/strong>\u00a0imbalances in trade or currency flows, capital investment, debt, speculation, labor compensation, wealth-income inequality, energy supply and consumption, etc. These structural distortions and imbalances tend to interact in self-reinforcing dynamics that overlap with normal business \/ credit cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The current recession has not yet been acknowledged, but this is standard operating procedure:<\/strong>\u00a0recessions are only declared long after they actually start due to statistical reporting lags. Maybe the recession of 2019-21 will be declared at some point in the future to have begun in Q2 or Q3, but the actual date is not that meaningful; what matters is what caused the recession and how the structural imbalances are resolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>So what caused the recession of 2019-21? Apparently nothing:<\/strong>\u00a0oil costs are relatively low, U.S. banks are relatively well-capitalized, geopolitical issues are on the backburner and stocks, bonds and real estate are all well-bid (i.e. there is no liquidity crisis).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This lack of apparent trigger will mystify conventional economists<\/strong>\u00a0who generally avoid the enormous structural imbalances in our economy because those imbalances are the only possible output of our Neofeudal Power Structure in which a New Nobility\/Oligarchy dominates financial and political power and skims the vast majority of gains the economy generates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021? The banquet of consequences is now being served, but the good seats have all been taken.As I discussed in\u00a0We&#8217;re Overdue for a Sell-Everything\/No-Fed-Rescue Recession, recessions have a proximate cause and a structural cause.\u00a0The proximate cause is often a spike in energy costs (1973, 1990) or a financial crisis triggered [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[23878,122,303,587,1264],"class_list":["post-43801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-banquet-of-consequences","tag-central-bank","tag-fed","tag-of-two-minds","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43801"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43801\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43802,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43801\/revisions\/43802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}