{"id":43538,"date":"2019-02-05T08:27:56","date_gmt":"2019-02-05T13:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43538"},"modified":"2019-02-05T08:28:01","modified_gmt":"2019-02-05T13:28:01","slug":"the-business-cycle-why-they-pretend-it-cannot-be-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=43538","title":{"rendered":"The Business Cycle &#038; Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.armstrongeconomics.com\/armstrongeconomics101\/ecm-armstrongeconomics101\/the-business-cycle-what-they-pretend-it-cannot-be-forecast\/\">The Business Cycle &amp; Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast\u00a0<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ECM-1970-2084.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/ECM-1970-2084-1024x698.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-44989\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>QUESTION:<\/strong>&nbsp;Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at \u2014\u2014\u2014 he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they so intimidated by your work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GMVideo Player00:0001:17<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ANSWER:<\/strong>\u00a0What you have to understand is that\u00a0<strong>IF<\/strong>\u00a0it is possible to forecast the business cycle, then that means politics have to change. The entire system is based upon the proposition of vote for me and I will reduce unemployment and bring world peace unless I do not like the people. If you listen to Larry Summers, he states that if you could forecast the business cycle, that would be bad because it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. He also states that the economy is far too complex, like weather, with way too many moving components that make it impossible to forecast. That means the door is open to manipulate the economy, as he suggested with negative interest rates. When that failed, he then discovered there was the zero interest boundary\u00a0where people would withdraw their cash from banks and defeat his negative interest tool. He has thus advocated eliminating physical paper money to allow his negative interest rate idea to then work \u2014 so he maintains. He ignores, of course, the entire pension fund system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Business Cycle &amp; Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast\u00a0 QUESTION:&nbsp;Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at \u2014\u2014\u2014 he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3487,237,5479],"class_list":["post-43538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-cycles","tag-economic-confidence-model","tag-martin-armstrong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43538"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43538\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43539,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43538\/revisions\/43539"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}