{"id":42798,"date":"2019-01-15T12:25:34","date_gmt":"2019-01-15T17:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42798"},"modified":"2019-01-31T22:03:50","modified_gmt":"2019-02-01T03:03:50","slug":"the-last-two-times-this-happened-a-crisis-hit-within-6-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42798","title":{"rendered":"The Last Two Times This Happened, A Crisis Hit Within 6 Months"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"title single-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/2019\/01\/15\/the-last-two-times-this-happened-a-crisis-hit-within-6-months\/\">The Last Two Times This Happened, A Crisis Hit Within 6 Months<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"post-single-content box mark-links\">\n<p>As I keep warning, the global economy is rapidly moving into a recession.<\/p>\n<p>If you don\u2019t believe me, consider that in the last two weeks, the following have been announced\u2026<\/p>\n<p>1)&nbsp;&nbsp; South Korean exports, a critical measure for global growth, recorded a -1.2% drop year over year in December.<\/p>\n<p>2)&nbsp;&nbsp; China\u2019s manufacturing PMI fell into outright contraction below 50. Car sales were negative for the first time in two decades. And Chinese exports fell 4.4% year over year.<\/p>\n<p>3)&nbsp;&nbsp; German Industrial Production fell 1.9% month over month and 4.6% year over year in November: the biggest drop since 2009. Real-time GDP trackers show the largest EU economy is already in a recession.<\/p>\n<p>4)&nbsp;&nbsp; US manufacturing ISM dropped sharply from 59% to 54% (not yet in contraction mode, but rapidly approaching it).<\/p>\n<p>To top if off, we now have numerous companies issuing warnings: Apple, Samsung, LG, Fed Ex, Delta, Skyworks, Tailored Brand, Sherwin-Williams, Lindt, Macy\u2019s, Kohl\u2019s, and American Airlines have all lowered forward guidance.<\/p>\n<p>So we\u2019ve got everything from airlines to big tech to chocolate producers and paint manufacturers <b><u>warning of a slowdown.<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p>This is the slowdown that stocks began to discount in October.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11114\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115191.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115191.png 460w, https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115191-300x185.png 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"284\"><\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately it\u2019s not over either. If you look at the long-term charts, it\u2019s clear the market realizes that the credit cycle has turned and we are moving into a recession\/ crisis.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11115\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115192.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115192.png 460w, https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GPC115192-300x185.png 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"284\"><\/p>\n<p>The last two times this happened, a crisis hit within three to six months.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11016\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/phoenixcapital-888357a7-a3f1-440f-b4d9-bb9181f99bff-v2.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/phoenixcapital-888357a7-a3f1-440f-b4d9-bb9181f99bff-v2.png 460w, https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/phoenixcapital-888357a7-a3f1-440f-b4d9-bb9181f99bff-v2-300x185.png 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"284\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Last Two Times This Happened, A Crisis Hit Within 6 Months As I keep warning, the global economy is rapidly moving into a recession. If you don\u2019t believe me, consider that in the last two weeks, the following have been announced\u2026 1)&nbsp;&nbsp; South Korean exports, a critical measure for global growth, recorded a -1.2% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,23707,23970,1264,23969,21770],"class_list":["post-42798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-graham-summers","tag-manufacturing-pmi","tag-recession","tag-south-korean-exports","tag-the-phoenix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42798"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42798\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43393,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42798\/revisions\/43393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}