{"id":42788,"date":"2019-01-15T08:01:44","date_gmt":"2019-01-15T13:01:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42788"},"modified":"2019-01-15T08:01:44","modified_gmt":"2019-01-15T13:01:44","slug":"can-you-time-peak-crazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42788","title":{"rendered":"Can You Time Peak Crazy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Can You Time Peak Crazy?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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You don\u2019t need me to tell you how completely crazy and distorted the financial markets have become over the last decade. Anyone reading this already knows that, which is partly why I stopped writing on the topic several years ago. I came to the conclusion there was no point in constantly screaming at the top of my lungs about what a farce the global financial system was. Instead, I decided to step back, let things play out to their predictably tragic end, and then play closer attention as the curtains started to come down. As has been made clear in my recent commentary, I think we\u2019re now reaching that point.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve begun reflecting a little more about the lessons I\u2019ve learned over the past several years of status quo stupidity, and one particular conversation I had a while ago with a friend who was a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund came to mind. I searched my old emails to find exactly what I had written, and the response became the inspiration for the title of today\u2019s post.<\/p>\n

The correspondence occurred nearly four years ago, in February 2015. His initial message highlighted a FT<\/em> article<\/a> about the fact that\u00a0Nestl\u00e9 bond yields had turned negative. This was my response to his email:<\/span><\/p>\n

Once you enter certifiably \u201ccrazy\u201d territory it becomes almost impossible to bet against crazy until it is obvious it is all unraveling. Once in crazy territory it can easily get more crazy since crazy has already been established.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The above is why you should never bet money against crazy simply because it\u2019s crazy. Crazy can go on for a long time, especially when the people in charge see themselves as gods sent from the heavens to deliver the planet from the horrors of declining asset prices and lower financial industry bonuses.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can You Time Peak Crazy? You don\u2019t need me to tell you how completely crazy and distorted the financial markets have become over the last decade. Anyone reading this already knows that, which is partly why I stopped writing on the topic several years ago. I came to the conclusion there was no point in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[36,1849,4285,6174],"class_list":["post-42788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-asset-bubble","tag-financial-markets","tag-liberty-blitzkrieg","tag-michael-krieger"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42789,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42788\/revisions\/42789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}