{"id":42640,"date":"2019-01-12T12:50:02","date_gmt":"2019-01-12T17:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42640"},"modified":"2019-01-12T12:50:02","modified_gmt":"2019-01-12T17:50:02","slug":"market-commentary-issues-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42640","title":{"rendered":"Market Commentary: Issues 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Market Commentary: Issues 2019<\/a><\/h3>\n
When I began posting the CBB some twenty years ago, I made a commitment to readers: \u201cI\u2019ll call it as I see it – and let the chips fall where they will.\u201d Over the years, I made a further commitment to myself: Don\u2019t be concerned with reputation \u2013 stay diligently focused on analytical integrity.<\/p>\n

I attach this odd intro to \u201cIssues 2019\u201d recognizing this is a year where I could look quite foolish. I believe Global Financial Crisis is the Paramount Issue 2019. Last year saw the bursting of a historic global Bubble, Crisis Dynamics commencing with the blow-up of \u201cshort vol\u201d strategies and attendant market instabilities. Crisis Dynamics proceeded to engulf the global \u201cPeriphery\u201d (Argentina, Turkey, EM, more generally, and China). Receiving a transitory liquidity boost courtesy of the faltering \u201cPeriphery,\u201d speculative Bubbles at \u201cCore\u201d U.S. securities markets succumbed to blow-off excess. Crisis Dynamics finally engulfed a vulnerable \u201cCore\u201d during 2018\u2019s tumultuous fourth quarter.<\/p>\n

As we begin a new year, rallying risk markets engender optimism. The storm has passed, it is believed. Especially with the Fed\u2019s early winding down of rate \u201cnormalization\u201d, there\u2019s no reason why the great bull market can\u2019t be resuscitated and extended. The U.S. economy remains reasonably strong, while Beijing has China\u2019s slowdown well under control. A trade deal would reduce uncertainty, creating a positive boost for markets and economies. With markets stabilized, the EM boom can get back on track. As always, upside volatility reenergizes market bullishness.<\/p>\n

I titled Issues 2018, \u201cMarket Structure.\u201d I fully anticipate Market Structure to remain a key Issue 2019. Trend-following strategies will continue to foment volatility and instability. U.S. securities markets rallied throughout the summer of 2018 in the face of a deteriorating fundamental backdrop. That rally, surely fueled by ETF flows and derivatives strategies, exacerbated fragilities.
\n\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market Commentary: Issues 2019 When I began posting the CBB some twenty years ago, I made a commitment to readers: \u201cI\u2019ll call it as I see it – and let the chips fall where they will.\u201d Over the years, I made a further commitment to myself: Don\u2019t be concerned with reputation \u2013 stay diligently focused […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[21635,1806,124,7756,303,6947,2240,481,487,690,3650],"class_list":["post-42640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-21635","tag-bubble","tag-central-banks","tag-credit-bubble-bulletin","tag-fed","tag-global-bubble","tag-global-financial-crisis","tag-leverage","tag-liquidity","tag-risk","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42640"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42641,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42640\/revisions\/42641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}