{"id":42531,"date":"2019-01-10T09:04:24","date_gmt":"2019-01-10T14:04:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42531"},"modified":"2019-01-10T09:04:24","modified_gmt":"2019-01-10T14:04:24","slug":"the-recession-will-be-unevenly-distributed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42531","title":{"rendered":"The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed<\/a><\/h3>\n

Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. <\/i><\/p>\n

The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched.<\/b> A few will actually do better in the recession than they did in the so-called “recovery.”<\/p>\n

I realize many of the concepts floated here are cryptic and need a fuller explanation:<\/b> the impact of owning differing kinds of capital, fragmentation, asymmetry, opacity, etc. ( 2019: Fragmented, Unevenly Distributed, Asymmetric, Opaque<\/a>).<\/p>\n

These dynamics guarantee a highly uneven distribution of recessionary consequences and whatever rewards are generated will be reaped by a few.<\/p>\n

One aspect of the uneven distribution is that sectors that were relatively protected in recent recessions will finally feel the impact of this one.<\/b> Large swaths of the tech sector (which is composed of dozens of different industries and services) that were devastated in the dot-com recession of 2000-02 came through the 2008-09 recession relatively unscathed.<\/p>\n

This time it will be different.<\/b> The build-out of mobile telephony merging with the web has been completed, social media has reached the stagnation phase of the S-Curve and many technologies that are widely promoted as around the corner are far from profitability.<\/p>\n

Then there’s slumping global demand for mobile phones and other consumer items that require silicon (processors) and other tech components: autos, to name just one major end-user of electronics.<\/p>\n

The net result will be mass layoffs globally across much of the tech sector.<\/b>Research is nice but it doesn’t pay the bills today or quiet the restive shareholders as profits tank.<\/p>\n

The public sector is also ripe for uneven distribution of recessionary impacts.<\/b>Local government and its agencies in boomtowns such as the SF Bay Area, Seattle, Los Angeles, NYC, etc. have feasted on soaring tax revenues and multi-billion dollar municipal bonds.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4280,127,195,425,587,1264],"class_list":["post-42531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-adaptation","tag-charles-hugh-smith","tag-debt","tag-inequality","tag-of-two-minds","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42531"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42532,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42531\/revisions\/42532"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}