{"id":42344,"date":"2019-01-07T05:58:42","date_gmt":"2019-01-07T10:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42344"},"modified":"2019-01-07T05:58:42","modified_gmt":"2019-01-07T10:58:42","slug":"the-fed-china-and-the-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42344","title":{"rendered":"The Fed, China, And The Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Fed, China, And The Markets<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Amid market volatility and continued downside surprises in global growth, investors are focusing on the Fed and China. <\/strong>Regarding the Fed, the issue is whether and when it could signal potential changes in balance sheet normalisation (as it has on the policy rate path). On China, the question is when growth could stabilise. We think policy-makers will take the actions necessary to manage their countries\u2019 respective growth trajectories. We believe that China\u2019s growth will bottom in 1Q19, while the Fed has begun to signal some flexibility on its balance sheet policy, if there is a material deterioration in the growth outlook.<\/p>\n

The Fed has altered its policy trajectory on rates, but not yet on the balance sheet. <\/strong>Despite robust trailing consumption growth and strong labour market dynamics, the US economy is unlikely to remain immune to slowing global growth. In addition, the recent tightening in financial conditions has affected capex intentions, and we expect the impact of fiscal stimulus on growth to fade in 2019. Recognising this slower growth environment, the Fed has signalled its flexibility on the policy rate path. However, the Fed has not yet given a clear signal on when the balance sheet reduction would end.<\/p>\n

The normalisation process has not been as smooth as assumed. The Fed had anticipated that once it announced the path of balance sheet normalisation, markets would discount that \u201cpassive and predictable\u201d pathway and that the process would be akin to \u201cwatching paint dry\u201d.<\/p>\n

However, we see the challenge as follows:<\/strong><\/p>\n

(1) Even though the Fed communicated the pace of the unwind well ahead of its start, uncertainty remains as regards the final, optimal size of the Fed\u2019s balance sheet. Moreover, we believe investors are concerned that the Fed has remained on a set course, even though the US and global growth outlook has weakened.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fed, China, And The Markets Amid market volatility and continued downside surprises in global growth, investors are focusing on the Fed and China. Regarding the Fed, the issue is whether and when it could signal potential changes in balance sheet normalisation (as it has on the policy rate path). On China, the question is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[23733,130,303,1849,431,534,7477,3650,4318],"class_list":["post-42344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-chetan-ahya","tag-china","tag-fed","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-morgan-stanley","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42344"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42345,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42344\/revisions\/42345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}