{"id":42323,"date":"2019-01-06T14:48:40","date_gmt":"2019-01-06T19:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42323"},"modified":"2019-01-06T14:48:40","modified_gmt":"2019-01-06T19:48:40","slug":"2019-considered-macro-population-cycle-business-cycle-turning-down-together","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42323","title":{"rendered":"2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together?"},"content":{"rendered":"

2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together?<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Well, 2019 is here and it’s time to consider what sort of growth is possible.\u00a0 Speaking from a macro’est viewpoint,\u00a0it’s helpful to\u00a0acknowledge that 90% of the wealth\/ income\/ savings and nearly 90% of global energy\u00a0is consumed by the high and upper middle income nations of the world (those with per capita incomes ranging from nearly $90k\/yr all the way down\u00a0to $4k\/yr).\u00a0 This is the high income nations of the US\/Canada, most of the EU, Japan\/S. Korea, Aus\/NZ, etc.\u00a0plus the upper middle income nations of China, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Thailand, Iran,\u00a0etc (as defined by World Bank…previously detailed HERE<\/a>).\u00a0 In 2019, this represents about 3.85 billion of earths approximate 7.7 billion population…or about half of earths population (50% consume 90%, while the other 50% consume just 10%).<\/p>\n

So, let’s examine the primary fuel source available in 2019…the growth among the 0 to 69yr\/old global consumer population.\u00a0 The blue line\u00a0in the\u00a0chart below shows the total 0 to 69yr\/old population\u00a0which includes the\u00a0potential working age population (20 to 69yr\/olds?) and child bearing population (15 to 45yr\/olds) versus the\u00a0annual change in that population (red columns).\u00a0 Astute chart watchers will note that population growth has decelerated by 30 million annually, a 75% reduction, since the 1988 peak.\u00a0 2025 is the year growth ceases entirely and by 2035 this population is estimated to be declining by <10> million annually.
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\nConsider that upon the completion of every business cycle since 1960\u00a0and onset of\u00a0recession, (highlighted by the blacked out columns in the chart below), there was\u00a0still significant growth\u00a0(fuel)\u00a0among the global consumer population.\u00a0 That population growth coupled with the Federal Reserves rate cuts and federal governments stimulus restarted not just domestic but global economic growth.\u00a0 The macro population cycle among the global high\/upper middle income nations\u00a0consumer base expanded anywhere from 30 to 40 million persons annually from 1960 through 1990, but growth slowed to about 20 million annually\u00a0from 1995 though 2015.<\/div>\n

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\u00a0\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2019 Considered…Macro Population Cycle & Business Cycle Turning Down Together? Well, 2019 is here and it’s time to consider what sort of growth is possible.\u00a0 Speaking from a macro’est viewpoint,\u00a0it’s helpful to\u00a0acknowledge that 90% of the wealth\/ income\/ savings and nearly 90% of global energy\u00a0is consumed by the high and upper middle income nations of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[21635,98,16387,14704,391,23728],"class_list":["post-42323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-21635","tag-business-cycle","tag-chris-hamilton","tag-economica","tag-growth","tag-population-cycle"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42323","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42323"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42323\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42324,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42323\/revisions\/42324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}