{"id":42139,"date":"2018-12-31T09:19:04","date_gmt":"2018-12-31T14:19:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42139"},"modified":"2018-12-31T09:19:04","modified_gmt":"2018-12-31T14:19:04","slug":"why-the-fed-nor-any-central-bank-can-ever-truly-normalize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42139","title":{"rendered":"Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize”<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Last week, I highlighted that since ’00, when the Federal Reserve has ceased adding to its balance sheet or begun “normalizing” (via rolling off assets), equity markets have swooned (detailed HERE<\/a>).<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nA simple idea today…that the end of\u00a0population growth (where it matters)\u00a0has long been\u00a0upon us (detailed below).\u00a0 Absent population growth among the nations that do nearly all the consuming, a debt based economic and financial system (to\u00a0coerce ever\u00a0higher levels of\u00a0debt fueled consumption) can’t ultimately succeed.\u00a0 That is, without population growth, assets generally don’t appreciate, homes are just shelter rather than “investments”,\u00a0and debt\u00a0is generally only a drag on future spending.\u00a0 Likewise, without population growth, total global energy consumption is on the precipice of secular decline (detailed HERE<\/a>).<\/p>\n

In this reality, the only means of maintaining or lifting asset prices further is ever more central bank monetization (aka, centrally planned and executed\u00a0counterfeiting).\u00a0 Of course, this monetization scheme is doomed to fail but while it continues, the gains are privatized while the losses are socialized.\u00a0 But\u00a0ultimately markets (and economies, as a means of honest exchange), will get cleared.\u00a0 So, without further ado, I detail the end of population growth (particularly where it matters):<\/p>\n

1- Simply put, topline\u00a0global population growth (births) ceased increasing\u00a0almost 30 years ago!\u00a0 Looking solely at the top-line (dashed black line, chart below), note that from 1950 to 1989, annual global births\u00a0increased 73%\u00a0(+57 million).\u00a0 Conversely, from 1989 to 2018, annual global births have risen just 1% (+1 million).\u00a0 Based on UN data and UN median (overly optimistic) future estimates.<\/p>\n

However, the distribution of those births among the differing groupings of nations (by income) has dramatically changed from 1950 to present…and will shift further by 2050.<\/p><\/div>\n

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\u00a0\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why the Fed, Nor Any Central Bank, Can Ever Truly “Normalize” Last week, I highlighted that since ’00, when the Federal Reserve has ceased adding to its balance sheet or begun “normalizing” (via rolling off assets), equity markets have swooned (detailed HERE). A simple idea today…that the end of\u00a0population growth (where it matters)\u00a0has long been\u00a0upon […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[39,49,122,16387,195,14704,1450,303,431,534,1160,3650],"class_list":["post-42139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-assets","tag-balance-sheet","tag-central-bank","tag-chris-hamilton","tag-debt","tag-economica","tag-equity-markets","tag-fed","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-population-growth","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42139"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42139\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42140,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42139\/revisions\/42140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}