{"id":42123,"date":"2018-12-31T08:42:32","date_gmt":"2018-12-31T13:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42123"},"modified":"2018-12-31T08:42:32","modified_gmt":"2018-12-31T13:42:32","slug":"uh-oh-in-a-month-of-big-warnings-the-biggest-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42123","title":{"rendered":"Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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All better now. It\u2019s a Christmas miracle, the plunge erased by market closure as if FDR had just been re-elected and taken the oath. The Dow is on everyone\u2019s mind, so trading on December 26 has understandably stuck<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stocks posted their best day in nearly a decade on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its largest one-day point gain in history. Rallies in retail and energy shares led the gains, as Wall Street recovered the steep losses suffered in the previous session.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The sigh of relief is palpable all across the world. The BIS called the steep, worrisome liquidations<\/a> up to now Yet More Bumps On The Path To Normal<\/em>, and the rallies especially in stocks and oil have served to confirm the thesis. Just some minor, dare I say transitory discomfort on the road to paradise.<\/p>\n

Is it though?<\/p>\n

We have been watching eurodollar futures, well, forever but with even greater purpose and intent since mid-June. There is little the eurodollar curve won\u2019t spill information about, and its inversion around then was a huge warning that whatever shook the global money network on May 29 was indeed nothing to just ignore.<\/p>\n

Money curves are supposed to be upward sloping reflecting the risks of a healthy environment, including economic opportunity. For it to be distorted to the point of being upside down, that\u2019s big. People have a hard time interpreting regular curves, so unhealthy ones are much more a mystery (thanks to Economics).<\/p>\n

The specific contracts displaying eurodollar\u2019s version of oil contango were those out several years, the 2020\u2019s to 2021\u2019s. For a time, the inversion extended into 2022. For the few who noticed, this didn\u2019t seem too much to be concerned about; a far distant probability of some nonspecific hedging case. Surely the world can be fixed given two or three years.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uh Oh; In A Month Of Big Warnings, The Biggest Yet All better now. It\u2019s a Christmas miracle, the plunge erased by market closure as if FDR had just been re-elected and taken the oath. The Dow is on everyone\u2019s mind, so trading on December 26 has understandably stuck. Stocks posted their best day in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[11182,1733,1269,9257,216,7551,9750,1849,13578,1138],"class_list":["post-42123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-alhambra-investment-partners","tag-bank-for-international-settlements","tag-bis","tag-djia","tag-dow","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-eurodollar","tag-financial-markets","tag-jeffrey-p-snider","tag-stock-market"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42123"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42123\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42124,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42123\/revisions\/42124"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}