{"id":42112,"date":"2018-12-30T11:19:47","date_gmt":"2018-12-30T16:19:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42112"},"modified":"2018-12-30T11:19:47","modified_gmt":"2018-12-30T16:19:47","slug":"a-debt-based-system-cant-succeed-without-population-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=42112","title":{"rendered":"A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth<\/a><\/h3>\n
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A simple idea today…that the end of\u00a0population growth (where it matters)\u00a0is upon us.\u00a0 Absent population growth among the nations that do nearly all the consuming, a debt based economic and financial system can’t ultimately succeed.\u00a0 That is, without growth, assets generally don’t appreciate and debt\u00a0is generally only a drag on future spending and activity.\u00a0 The timing of the failure\u00a0can be delayed and the gains privatized while the losses are socialized, but\u00a0ultimately markets (and economies, as a means of honest exchange), will get cleared.\u00a0 So, without further ado, the end of population growth:<\/p>\n

1- Simply put, topline\u00a0global population growth (births) ceased growing almost 30 years ago!\u00a0 Looking solely at the top-line (chart below), note that from 1950 to 1989, annual global births\u00a0increased 73%\u00a0(+57 million\/annually).\u00a0 Conversely, from 1989 to 2018, annual global births have risen just 1% (+1 million\/annually).\u00a0 Data based on UN data and UN median estimates.<\/p>\n

However, the distribution of those births among the differing groupings of nations (by income) has dramatically changed from 1950 to present…and will shift further by 2050.\u00a0 The chart below\u00a0shows the\u00a0proportion of births among the high income, upper middle income\u00a0nations,\u00a0and China have nearly fallen in half since 1950…while the proportion of births among the lower middle and low income nations have soared.\u00a0 More simply put, births among those that consume heavily (about 90% of total energy)\u00a0have long since collapsed while births among those who consume relatively little (less than 10%)\u00a0have soared.<\/div>\n
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But now, lets look\u00a0at the sources and timing of those changing births and the implications for\u00a0consumption.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
High income nations births (blue line) and\u00a0year over year\u00a0change (red columns).\u00a0 Incomes range from $90k to $12k, per capita, and these nations (US\/Can, EU, Japan\/S. Korea, Aus\/NZ, etc.)\u00a0consume 47% of total global energy.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u00a0\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Debt Based System Can’t Succeed Without Population Growth A simple idea today…that the end of\u00a0population growth (where it matters)\u00a0is upon us.\u00a0 Absent population growth among the nations that do nearly all the consuming, a debt based economic and financial system can’t ultimately succeed.\u00a0 That is, without growth, assets generally don’t appreciate and debt\u00a0is generally […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[16387,175,195,12113,14704,391,1160],"class_list":["post-42112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-chris-hamilton","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-debt-based-economic-system","tag-economica","tag-growth","tag-population-growth"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=42112"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42113,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42112\/revisions\/42113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=42112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=42112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=42112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}