{"id":41642,"date":"2018-12-14T07:07:35","date_gmt":"2018-12-14T12:07:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41642"},"modified":"2018-12-15T08:04:29","modified_gmt":"2018-12-15T13:04:29","slug":"latest-odds-of-a-shooting-war-between-nato-and-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41642","title":{"rendered":"Latest Odds of a Shooting War Between NATO and Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/consortiumnews.com\/2018\/12\/13\/latest-odds-of-a-shooting-war-between-nato-and-russia\/\">Latest Odds of a Shooting War Between NATO and Russia<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<div id=\"s-share-buttons\" class=\"horizontal-w-c-circular s-share-w-c\">\n<div class=\"pinit-btn-div\">Hungarian scholar George Szamuely tells Ann Garrison that he sees a 70 percent chance of combat between NATO and Russia following the incident in the Kerch Strait and that it is being fueled by Russia-gate.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>George Szamuely is a Hungarian-born scholar and Senior Research Fellow at London\u2019s Global Policy Institute. He lives in New York City. I spoke to him about escalating hostilities on Russia\u2019s Ukrainian and Black Sea borders and about Exercise <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/157833.htm\">Trident <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/157833.htm\">J<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/cps\/en\/natohq\/157833.htm\">uncture<\/a>, NATO\u2019s massive military exercise on Russian borders which ended just as the latest hostilities began.<\/p>\n<p><b>Ann Garrison: <\/b>George, the hostilities between Ukraine, NATO, and Russia continue to escalate in the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, and the Black Sea. What do you think the latest odds of a shooting war between NATO and Russia are, if one hasn\u2019t started by the time this is published?<\/p>\n<p><b>George Szamuely: <\/b>Several weeks ago, when we first talked about this, I said 60 percent. Now I\u2019d say, maybe 70 percent. The problem is that Trump seems determined to be the anti-Obama. Obama, in Trump\u2019s telling, \u201callowed\u201d Russia to take Crimea and to \u201cinvade\u201d Ukraine. Therefore, it will be up to Trump to reverse this. Just as he, Trump, reversed Obama\u2019s policy on Iran by walking away from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/e\/eb\/tfs\/spi\/iran\/jcpoa\/\">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a>, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal. So expect ever-increasing US involvement in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p><b>AG: <\/b>NATO\u2019s Supreme Commander US General Curtis M. Scaparrotti is reported to have been on the phone with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko \u201coffering his full support.\u201d Thoughts on that?<\/p>\n<p><b>GS: <\/b>There has been a proxy war within Ukraine since 2014, with NATO backing Poroshenko\u2019s Ukrainian government and Russia backing the dissidents and armed separatists who speak Russian and identify as Russian in Ukraine\u2019s southeastern Donbass region. But in the Kerch Strait the hostilities are between Russia and Ukraine, with NATO behind Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Latest Odds of a Shooting War Between NATO and Russia Hungarian scholar George Szamuely tells Ann Garrison that he sees a 70 percent chance of combat between NATO and Russia following the incident in the Kerch Strait and that it is being fueled by Russia-gate. George Szamuely is a Hungarian-born scholar and Senior Research Fellow [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[21961,6963,23490,23491,553,694,15282,15602,821,862],"class_list":["post-41642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","tag-ann-garrison","tag-consortium-news","tag-george-szamuely","tag-global-policy-institute","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-russiagate","tag-shooting-war","tag-ukraine","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41642"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41642\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41643,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41642\/revisions\/41643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}