{"id":41371,"date":"2018-12-06T18:19:49","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T23:19:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41371"},"modified":"2018-12-06T18:19:49","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T23:19:49","slug":"the-makings-of-a-global-debt-crisis-are-in-place","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41371","title":{"rendered":"The Makings of a Global Debt Crisis Are in Place"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Makings of a Global Debt Crisis Are in Place\u00a0<\/a><\/h3>\n

In 2017, the financial world was filled with talk of synchronized sustainable growth in major economies for the first time since before the 2008 global financial crisis. This was being proclaimed by global financial elites including Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF.<\/p>\n

Now that vision is in ashes. Synchronized global growth has turned into a synchronized global slowdown. Growth has already turned negative in two of the world\u2019s largest economies, Japan and Germany, and is slowing rapidly in the world\u2019s biggest economies, China and the U.S.<\/p>\n

China may report something like 6.8% GDP growth, but when all the waste in its economy is stripped out the actual growth is probably closer to 4.5%. That\u2019s still growth, but not nearly enough to sustain China\u2019s massive debt overload. Its debt is growing faster than the economy and its debt-to-GDP ratio is even worse than the U.S.<\/p>\n

For a sense of perspective, China had about $2 trillion total debt in 2000. Today, it\u2019s about $40 trillion. That\u2019s an unbelievable 2,000% increase in under 20 years.<\/p>\n

Growth is also slowing in the U.S. The 2009\u20132018 recovery has already been the weakest recovery in U.S. history despite a few good quarters here and there. And there\u2019s little reason to expect it to pick up from here.<\/p>\n

GDP expanded 3.5% last quarter, which looks good on paper. But the trend is pointing down. Since this April, we\u2019ve seen growth of 4.2% (Q2), and 3.5% (Q3). This trend tends to confirm the view that 2018 growth was a \u201cTrump bump\u201d from the tax cuts that will not be repeated. And Q4 GDP will probably be lower than Q3.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs, for example, projects fourth-quarter GDP to expand at 2.5%. It further expects growth to drop to 2.2% by the second quarter of 2019, and to 1.6% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Makings of a Global Debt Crisis Are in Place\u00a0 In 2017, the financial world was filled with talk of synchronized sustainable growth in major economies for the first time since before the 2008 global financial crisis. This was being proclaimed by global financial elites including Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF. Now that vision […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6177,11023,195,7196,418,434,7544],"class_list":["post-41371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-christine-lagarde","tag-daily-reckoning","tag-debt","tag-global-debt-crisis","tag-imf","tag-international-monetary-fund","tag-john-rubino"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41371"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41371\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41372,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41371\/revisions\/41372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}