{"id":41095,"date":"2018-11-30T15:25:49","date_gmt":"2018-11-30T20:25:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41095"},"modified":"2018-11-30T15:26:18","modified_gmt":"2018-11-30T20:26:18","slug":"the-federal-punch-bowl-removal-agency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=41095","title":{"rendered":"The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency<\/a><\/h3>\n

US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market \u201cpanic window\u201d is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central planners have not the foggiest idea about the future<\/a> which their policy is aiming to influence was taken as an \u201cexcuse\u201d to drive up stock prices. Powell\u2019s speech was regarded as dovish. If it actually was, then it was a really<\/em> bad idea to buy stocks because of it.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Jerome Powell: a new species of US central banker \u2013 a seemingly normal human being in public that transforms into the dollar-dissolving vampire bat Ptenochirus Iagori Powelli<\/em> when it believes it is unobserved.<\/p>\n

We say this for two reasons: for one thing, the Fed is reactive and when it moves\u00a0\u00a0 from a tightening to a neutral or an easing bias, it usually indicates that the economy has deteriorated to the point where it can be expected to fall off a cliff shortly.<\/p>\n

In this case it seems more likely that Mr. Powell has tempered his views on tightening after contemplating the complaints piling up in his inbox and looking at a recent chart of 5-year inflation breakevens. After all, there is no evidence of an imminent recession yet, even though a few noteworthy pockets of economic weakness have recently emerged (weakness in the housing sector is particularly glaring).<\/p>\n

Recall that the last easing cycle began with a rate cut in August 2007<\/em>. This first rate cut was book-ended by a double top in the SPX in July and October.\u00a0 Thereafter the stock market collapsed in the second-worst bear market of the past century \u2013 while the Fed concurrently cut rates all the way to zero (and eventually beyond, in the form of QE).<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market \u201cpanic window\u201d is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,122,13010,303,16888,6170,3650,10751],"class_list":["post-41095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-central-bank","tag-credit-growth","tag-fed","tag-jerome-powell","tag-pater-tenebrarum","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-us-money-supply"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41095"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41096,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41095\/revisions\/41096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}