{"id":40909,"date":"2018-11-25T13:24:49","date_gmt":"2018-11-25T18:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=40909"},"modified":"2018-11-25T13:24:49","modified_gmt":"2018-11-25T18:24:49","slug":"oil-sends-a-crude-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=40909","title":{"rendered":"Oil Sends A \u201cCrude Warning\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil Sends A \u201cCrude Warning\u201d<\/a><\/h3>\n
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As with many Americans, I am on the road with the family making the traditional holiday rounds. Of course, my family is more \u201cThe Griswolds\u201d<\/em> than \u201cThe Waltons.<\/em>\u00a0but even with all of the antics, comedy, and occasional drama, it is always an enjoyable time of the year.<\/p>\n

However, I did wake up from my tryptophan-induced coma long enough to pen a few thoughts on the crash in crude oil and the message it is sending.<\/p>\n

On Monday, I am publishing an article on the fallacy that \u201cfalling energy prices are an economic boost.\u201d<\/em>\u00a0It isn\u2019t,<\/strong> and we dig into all the reasons why in that article.<\/p>\n

However, the short version is that oil prices are a reflection of supply and demand. Global demand has already been falling for the last several months and oil prices are now waking up that reality. More importantly, falling oil prices are going to put the Fed in a very tough position in the next couple of months as the expected surge in inflationary pressures, in order to justify higher rates, once again fails to appear.\u00a0<\/strong>The chart below shows breakeven 5-year and 10-year inflation rates versus oil prices.<\/p>\n

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Oil prices also tend to lead the broad economic cycle as well. The chart below is one of the broadest measures of economic activity and is comprised of leading economic indicators, Fed regional manufacturing surveys, NFIB small business survey, ISM, CFNAI, and Chicago PMI.<\/p>\n

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Since most of the economic data we look at is trailing, and subject to heavy negative revisions, the collapse in oil prices suggests that coming economic reports will likely be materially weaker than currently expected.<\/p>\n

Can I Have A Side Of Debt<\/strong><\/p>\n

But there is another\u00a0enormous problem currently for the oil and gas sector currently at risk \u2013 the debt.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil Sends A \u201cCrude Warning\u201d As with many Americans, I am on the road with the family making the traditional holiday rounds. Of course, my family is more \u201cThe Griswolds\u201d than \u201cThe Waltons.\u00a0but even with all of the antics, comedy, and occasional drama, it is always an enjoyable time of the year. However, I did […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[195,8511,588,2245,592,15470,1427],"class_list":["post-40909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-debt","tag-lance-roberts","tag-oil","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","tag-real-investment-advice","tag-supply-and-demand"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40909"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40909\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40910,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40909\/revisions\/40910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}