{"id":40201,"date":"2018-11-06T09:17:45","date_gmt":"2018-11-06T14:17:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=40201"},"modified":"2018-11-06T09:17:45","modified_gmt":"2018-11-06T14:17:45","slug":"no-one-has-outlawed-recessions-stockman-sees-sp-fair-value-way-below-2000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=40201","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;No One Has Outlawed Recessions&#8221; Stockman Sees S&#038;P Fair Value &#8220;Way Below 2000&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"block-zerohedge-page-title\" class=\"block block-core block-page-title-block\">\n<h3 class=\"page-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-11-05\/no-one-has-outlawed-recessions-stockman-sees-sp-fair-value-way-below-2000\"><span class=\"field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden\">&#8220;No One Has Outlawed Recessions&#8221; Stockman Sees S&amp;P Fair Value &#8220;Way Below 2000&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"block-zerohedge-content\" class=\"block block-system block-system-main-block\">\n<article class=\"node node--type-article node--view-mode-full\" role=\"article\" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-2077925_22=\"1048\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-2077925_22=\"1048\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-2077925_22=\"100\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-2077925_22=\"1\">\n<div class=\"node__content\">\n<div class=\"clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item\">\n<p><strong><em>&#8220;If you&#8217;re a rational investor, you need only two words in your vocabulary: Trump and sell,&#8221; <\/em><\/strong><em>says <\/em>David Stockman, former President Reagan&#8217;s Office of Management and Budget director, warning that<strong> a 40% stock market plunge is closing in on Wall Street<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/20170522_stockman_0.jpg?itok=qhy5X0S0\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/20170522_stockman_0.jpg?itok=qhy5X0S0\" data-link-option=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/inline-images\/20170522_stockman_0.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/inline_image_desktop\/public\/inline-images\/20170522_stockman_0.jpg?itok=qhy5X0S0 1x\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"285\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"fa575dac-568f-4ca2-bd12-41dffda43812\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>While not the first time Stockman has warned of a catastrophe waiting to happen in markets, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/futures-now\/\">he told CNBC&#8217;s Futures Now<\/a> that, after the worst monthly loss for global stocks since the financial crisis, that <strong>the early rumblings of that epic downturn are finally here.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.cnbc.com\/p\/gZWlPC\/cnbc_global?playertype=synd&amp;byGuid=7000048824&amp;size=530_298\" width=\"530\" height=\"298\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><strong>&#8220;No one has outlawed recessions. We&#8217;re within a year or two of one,&#8221;\u00a0<\/strong><\/em> adding that:<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>&#8220;fair value of the S&amp;P going into the next recession is well below 2000, 1500 &#8211; way below where we are today.&#8221; <\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to Stockman, Trump&#8217;s efforts to get the Fed to stop hiking rates from historical lows is misdirected&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><em>&#8220;He&#8217;s attacking the Fed for going too quick when it&#8217;s been dithering for eight years. The funds rate at 2.13 percent is still below inflation,&#8221;<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Specifically, Stockman notes the trade war is a major reason why investors should brace for a prolonged sell-off.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><strong>&#8220;The trade war is not remotely rational,&#8221;<\/strong><\/em> he said.<\/p>\n<p>If the dispute worsens,<em><strong> it &#8220;is going to hit the whole goods economy with inflation like you&#8217;ve never seen before because China supplies about 30 percent of the goods in the categories we import.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Stockman ends on an even more ominous note:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;We&#8217;re going to be in a recession, and<strong> we&#8217;re going to have another market correction which will be pretty brutal,&#8221; <\/strong>Stockman said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;[Trump]&#8217;s playing with fire at the very top of an aging expansion.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>For now, all traders can think about is tomorrow &#8211; but we suspect Stockman will be right in the end.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;No One Has Outlawed Recessions&#8221; Stockman Sees S&amp;P Fair Value &#8220;Way Below 2000&#8221; &#8220;If you&#8217;re a rational investor, you need only two words in your vocabulary: Trump and sell,&#8221; says David Stockman, former President Reagan&#8217;s Office of Management and Budget director, warning that a 40% stock market plunge is closing in on Wall Street. While [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,2120,6632,1264,696,805,3222,827,860,4318],"class_list":["post-40201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-david-stockman","tag-financial-market","tag-recession","tag-sp","tag-trade","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states","tag-wall-street","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40201"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40201\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40202,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40201\/revisions\/40202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}