{"id":39794,"date":"2018-10-28T17:02:38","date_gmt":"2018-10-28T22:02:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39794"},"modified":"2018-10-28T17:02:38","modified_gmt":"2018-10-28T22:02:38","slug":"markets-get-crashier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39794","title":{"rendered":"Markets Get Crash(ier)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/market-gets-crashier-10-26-18\/\"><strong>Markets Get Crash<em>(ier)<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Over the last three weeks, as interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something had \u201c<em>just broken\u201d<\/em>\u00a0in the market.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/did-something-just-break-10-05-18\/\">Did Something Just Break? 10-05-18<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/yes-something-just-broke-10-12-18\/\">Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/market-clings-to-support-10-19-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Market Clings To Support \u2013 10-19-18<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As I stated last week:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThis past week has been a decidedly tough struggle for stocks to pick themselves up after last week\u2019s drubbing. While we saw a sharp reflexive bounce earlier this week, that bounce quickly faded as stocks returned to retest support at critically important levels.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While the market was oversold last week, there was no follow through on bounces which ultimately led to <em>\u201ccrash\u201d<\/em>open on Friday morning.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Now, all this SOUNDS terrible.<\/strong> And, after having THE single longest uninterrupted bull run in the history of the market with record low volatility <strong>it FEELS even worse.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So, before we get into the not so good news, let\u2019s keep this all in perspective for a minute.<\/p>\n<p>For the year:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The S&amp;P 500 index, not including dividends, is down 0.56%.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The S&amp;P 500 Total Return index is still positive by 0.98%<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>A 60\/40 model (60% Vanguard S&amp;P 500 and 40% Vanguard Bond Fund) is down 1.72%<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What has been different this year so far, is that bonds, while they have reduced the volatility of the recent decline in the S&amp;P 500 index, have not contributed to portfolio returns this year so far. So, the only place to hide has been cash.<\/p>\n<p>However, if we take a look at the\u00a0market from 2009 to present, we can gain some better context.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/SP500-Chart1-102618.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-407614\" src=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/SP500-Chart1-102618.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/SP500-Chart1-102618.png 990w, https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/SP500-Chart1-102618-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/SP500-Chart1-102618-768x577.png 768w\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"744\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The recent decline is very much like the previous corrections in the market. The red circles denote when both <em>\u201csell signals\u201d<\/em> align<em> (a correction of overbought conditions and a triggered sell signal).<\/em>\u00a0These corrections have specifically coincided with periods where the market was extremely deviated above the running bullish trend line <em>(gold boxes.)\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets Get Crash(ier) Over the last three weeks, as interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something had \u201cjust broken\u201d\u00a0in the market. Did Something Just Break? 10-05-18 Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18 Market Clings To Support \u2013 10-19-18 As I stated last week: \u201cThis past week has been a decidedly tough [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1849,431,8511,15470],"class_list":["post-39794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-lance-roberts","tag-real-investment-advice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39795,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39794\/revisions\/39795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}