{"id":39788,"date":"2018-10-28T11:13:16","date_gmt":"2018-10-28T16:13:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39788"},"modified":"2018-10-28T11:13:16","modified_gmt":"2018-10-28T16:13:16","slug":"dont-expect-a-fed-bail-out-what-convexity-flows-mean-for-repricing-of-the-fed-put","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39788","title":{"rendered":"Don’t Expect A Fed Bail Out: What Convexity Flows Mean For Repricing Of The “Fed Put”"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Don’t Expect A Fed Bail Out: What Convexity Flows Mean For Repricing Of The “Fed Put”<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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One of the major topics to emerge among financial professionals over the past week in the aftermath of the latest violent market move lower was whether the “Fed Put” would come into play, and at what level, and just as importantly, what happens to markets – both stocks and bonds – as this new put level is repriced by market participants.<\/p>\n

As we discussed last Thursday<\/a>, in one of its questions in the latest Fund Managers Survey released last week, Bank of America asked “what level on the S&P 500 do you think would cause the Fed to stop hiking rates?” What it found is that according to the respondents, the Fed would stop hiking if the S&P 500 fell to 2390, suggesting the “Powell put” strike price is about -12% below current levels.<\/p>\n

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Other banks also stepped <\/a>in with: according to BNP Paribas, a 6% drop in the S&P 500 Index to 2,500 would be the resistance level that would prompt a response from Powell. “A 10 percent to 15 percent drop in equities is usually the difference between noise and signal,” BNP Paribas analysts said in a note. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI has put the “Fed Put” below the 2,650 mark.<\/p>\n

Other were more skeptical, with BlackRock and River Valley Asset Management say the real economy remains relatively insulated from the stock meltdown. “The correction that we\u2019re seeing in the stock market obviously is something that they pay attention to,\u201d Scott Thiel, deputy chief investment officer for fundamental fixed income at BlackRock in London said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. But \u201cthe bar is very high to change Fed monetary policy.”<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Don’t Expect A Fed Bail Out: What Convexity Flows Mean For Repricing Of The “Fed Put” One of the major topics to emerge among financial professionals over the past week in the aftermath of the latest violent market move lower was whether the “Fed Put” would come into play, and at what level, and just […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3038,303,22628,12846,431,534,3650,4318],"class_list":["post-39788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bank-of-america","tag-fed","tag-fed-bail-out","tag-fed-put","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39789,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39788\/revisions\/39789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}