{"id":39608,"date":"2018-10-23T09:42:02","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T14:42:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39608"},"modified":"2018-10-23T09:42:02","modified_gmt":"2018-10-23T14:42:02","slug":"the-market-is-pulling-forward-end-of-cycle-timing-nomura-warns-of-shift-to-risk-negative-mindset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=39608","title":{"rendered":"The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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With global investors desperately searching for a narrative to explain “what changed” as the calendar flipped a page to exuberant September to awful October, we suspect the realization of the fact that global central bank balance sheets are contracting and the world is tightening finally started to dawn on even the most ardent dip-buyer…<\/p>\n

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Even China’s promise of never-ending support for stocks was unable to support stocks overnight, and as Nomura’s MD of cross-asset strategy notes:<\/p>\n

This then looks like general Macro consensual positioning \u201cgross-down\u201d flow,\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>as \u201cLongs\u201d in SPX, Nikkei, Crude and USD are under pressure, while \u201cShorts\u201d in USTs, ED$, EUR and Gold all squeeze.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Additionally, Charlie McElligott points out that the S&P as the \u201cYTD global Equities safe-haven\u201d theme now too is \u201ccracking\u201d<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

After shattering through the 200d MA once again yesterday, S&P futures are now again within reach of the MTD lows (2712) as\u00a0discretionary tactical longs \u201ctap out\u201d and asset managers continue to sell-down legacy longs (still ~$80B in SPX)<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Pointing out that the S&P has big gamma at 2700 strikes (~$3.9B for 10\/26 expiry, ~$3.6B for 10\/29 expiry) with the largest \u201cpull\u201d remaining at the 2750 strike (~$4.7B \/ ~$4.0B)<\/p>\n

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The strategist warns of a slow and ongoing \u201cpain trade\u201d for legacy consensual Equities fund positioning <\/strong>as\u00a0 our global Equities factor monitors showing \u201cGrowth\u201d again hit hard to the benefit of \u201cValue<\/strong>\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>overnight across Asia-Pac, Japan and Europe (on top of the same ongoing MTD theme in U.S.)<\/p>\n

This of course was the top concern going into EPS season:<\/em><\/p>\n

would investors pivot to \u201clate-cycle\u201d mentality with regard to the likelihood of generally \u201clowered guidance,\u201d or would they take the \u201cglass half full\u201d route of \u201clower bars to beat\u201d in Q4<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset” With global investors desperately searching for a narrative to explain “what changed” as the calendar flipped a page to exuberant September to awful October, we suspect the realization of the fact that global central bank balance sheets are contracting and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22543,22545,8470,690,22544,4318],"class_list":["post-39608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-end-of-cycle","tag-global-equities","tag-nomura","tag-risk","tag-risk-negative-mindset","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39608"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39609,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39608\/revisions\/39609"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}