{"id":38714,"date":"2018-10-04T12:57:14","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T17:57:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38714"},"modified":"2018-10-04T12:57:14","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T17:57:14","slug":"the-synchronized-growth-fallacy-interview-at-real-vision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38714","title":{"rendered":"The Synchronized Growth Fallacy (Interview at Real Vision)"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dlacalle.com\/en\/the-synchronized-growth-fallacy-interview-at-real-vision\/\">The Synchronized Growth Fallacy (Interview at Real Vision)<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/OsEsSp0s6kw\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Please find the complete interview <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realvision.com\/rv\/login?redirect=rv%2Ftelevision%2Fvideos%2F5fe7cfa7d9394155b079dcc4ce61adf3%3Futm_source%3DRealVision%26utm_medium%3DEmail%26utm_campaign%3D20181001_AL1_DKU_EM_RV_W1_L1\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The fallacy of synchronized growth.<\/strong><span id=\"more-8817\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>We have been hearing from international bodies, from central banks that we were living in a\u00a0synchronized growth territory. That we were seeing developed markets grow faster than what\u00a0was typical while emerging markets were also growing in tandem. And that<br \/>\nthe economies were much healthier, that everything was much better, and that 2018 was a year\u00a0in which we would see the confirmation of that synchronized growth trend and the reflation trade.<\/p>\n<p>Well, it wasn\u2019t the case. The case actually was that what we were being told was\u00a0synchronized growth was actually synchronized debt growth. And that massive increase in debt\u00a0that led to the highest level relative to GDP in history last year was creating massive\u00a0problems, internal problems, in many economies that were getting used to cheap and easy\u00a0money.<\/p>\n<p>A very small, minuscule and completely moderate reduction in the\u00a0balance sheet of the Federal Reserve of less than $260 billion, has created this reckoning. This\u00a0reckoning that the reality that we were seeing globally was not a reality of higher growth, better<br \/>\nproductivity, and more positive surprises. But the reality that it was just debt led bump up of a\u00a0much clearer trend of secular stagnation.<\/p>\n<p>So what happens is that we will likely see solutions that, instead of cleaning the system, will be solutions that will basically lead to more secular stagnation. Why?<br \/>\nBecause what most central banks, what most governments will be doing, will be to try to avoid the\u00a0pain. Avoid the pain of improving the economy.<\/p>\n<p>What will they do then? What they will likely do is to perpetuate the problem via more demand-side policies. Therefore, this\u00a0constant bailout of the less productive parts of the economies\u00a0is actually more likely to be the \u201csolution\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Synchronized Growth Fallacy (Interview at Real Vision) Please find the complete interview here. The fallacy of synchronized growth. We have been hearing from international bodies, from central banks that we were living in a\u00a0synchronized growth territory. That we were seeing developed markets grow faster than what\u00a0was typical while emerging markets were also growing in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[16957,17063,391,15853,22111],"class_list":["post-38714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-daniel-lacalle","tag-fallacy","tag-growth","tag-real-vision","tag-synchronized-growth"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38714"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38714\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38715,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38714\/revisions\/38715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}