{"id":38641,"date":"2018-10-03T18:49:01","date_gmt":"2018-10-03T23:49:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38641"},"modified":"2018-10-03T18:49:01","modified_gmt":"2018-10-03T23:49:01","slug":"china-for-the-trade-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38641","title":{"rendered":"China for the Trade Win?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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China for the Trade Win?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Empire of Debt<\/a>
\nDebt in Pictures<\/a>
\nWargaming the Trade War<\/a>
\nSome Thoughts on Getting Through the Great Debt Reset<\/a>
\nSan Francisco, Frankfurt, and Puerto Rico?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders say no, we will win. Free-traders on both sides say no one will win. Few stop to ask, \u201cWhat does a \u2018win\u2019 look like?\u201d<\/p>\n

This makes discussion difficult. People are chasing after a condition they can\u2019t even define. Victory will remain elusive until they know what they want. Regardless, you can score me on the \u201cno one wins\u201d side. I believe, and I think a lot of evidence proves, that free trade between nations is the best way to maximize long-run prosperity for everyone.<\/p>\n

However\u2026<\/p>\n

As Keynes famously said, we\u2019re all dead in the long run. Trade war may end<\/em> with no winners, but the parties will be better and worse off at various times as it progresses. So we have to distinguish between \u201cwinning\u201d and \u201cholding a temporary lead.\u201d<\/p>\n

On that basis, I think the US will have the upper hand initially, and could hold it for a year or two. This is because, for now, our economy is relatively strong and we can better withstand any Chinese retaliation. Beyond that point I think our current policies will begin to backfire, maybe spectacularly.<\/p>\n

Remember, too, China has growing trade surpluses with much of the world. One Chinese insider told me that within four years China can replace lost US exports via increased trading with the rest of the world. I can\u2019t verify that but looking at general statistics it certainly seems plausible. That doesn\u2019t mean lost US trade won\u2019t be felt, but China is not entirely helpless.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China for the Trade Win? Empire of Debt Debt in Pictures Wargaming the Trade War Some Thoughts on Getting Through the Great Debt Reset San Francisco, Frankfurt, and Puerto Rico? With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,195,8226,21625,805,3222,827],"class_list":["post-38641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-john-mauldin","tag-thoughts-from-the-frontline","tag-trade","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38641"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38641\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38642,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38641\/revisions\/38642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}