{"id":38406,"date":"2018-09-28T06:46:53","date_gmt":"2018-09-28T11:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38406"},"modified":"2018-09-28T06:46:53","modified_gmt":"2018-09-28T11:46:53","slug":"the-inevitable-oil-supply-crunch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38406","title":{"rendered":"The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch<\/a><\/h3>\n\"oil\"<\/picture>\n
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\u201cThe warning signs are there \u2013 the industry isn\u2019t finding enough oil.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the start of a new report<\/a> from Wood Mackenzie, which concludes that a supply gap could emerge in the mid-2020s as demand rises at a time when too few new sources of supply are coming online. By 2030, there could be a supply shortfall on the order of 3 million barrels per day (mb\/d), WoodMac argues. By 2035, it balloons to 7 mb\/d, and by 2040, it reaches 12 mb\/d. \u201cBarring technology breakthrough beyond what we already assume, we\u2019ll need new oil discoveries,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n

The seeds of the problem were sown during the oil market downturn that began in 2014. Global upstream exploration spending plunged from $60 billion in 2014 to just $25 billion in 2018, according to WoodMac. Unsurprisingly, that translated into a steep decline in new discoveries. In the early part of this decade, the oil industry was discovering around 8 billion barrels of oil annually. That figure has plunged by three quarters since 2014.<\/p>\n

The precise figures vary, but Rystad Energy came a similar conclusion, noting that the total volume of new oil and gas reserves discovered plunged to a record low in 2017. \u201cWe haven\u2019t seen anything like this since the 1940s,\u201d Sonia Mlad\u00e1 Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a December 2017 statement<\/a>. \u201cThe most worrisome is the fact that the reserve replacement ratio in the current year reached only 11% (for oil and gas combined) – compared to over 50% in 2012.\u201d<\/p>\n

This year, the industry has had a bit more success. Spending is on the rebound and new discoveries are on track to rise<\/a> by about 30 percent, although that is heavily influenced by the developments in Guyana, where ExxonMobil and Hess Corp. have reported nearly a dozen discoveries, and hope to ramp up production to around 750,000 bpd<\/a> by 2025.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch \u201cThe warning signs are there \u2013 the industry isn\u2019t finding enough oil.\u201d That\u2019s the start of a new report from Wood Mackenzie, which concludes that a supply gap could emerge in the mid-2020s as demand rises at a time when too few new sources of supply are coming online. By […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6010,589,596,5332,15021,13720],"class_list":["post-38406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-nick-cunningham","tag-oil-demand","tag-oil-supply","tag-oilprice-com","tag-rystad-energy","tag-wood-mackenzie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38406"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38406\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38407,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38406\/revisions\/38407"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}