{"id":38191,"date":"2018-09-24T05:02:18","date_gmt":"2018-09-24T10:02:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38191"},"modified":"2018-09-24T05:02:18","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T10:02:18","slug":"here-comes-the-30-year-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38191","title":{"rendered":"Here comes the 30-year trade war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here comes the 30-year trade war<\/a><\/h3>\n

Trade tensions between the US and China could drag on for decades but China’s focus on its Belt and Road Initiative could provide relief<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"We<\/p>\n
We might be at the start of a decades-long trade war between China and the US. Photo: iStock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Alibaba\u2019s Jack Ma has warned that the ongoing US-China trade war could last at least 20 years. As we\u2019ll see, it\u2019s actually more like 30 \u2013 up to 2049, the 100th<\/sup> anniversary of the foundation of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC).<\/p>\n

Steve Bannon always boasted that President Trump was bound to conduct a \u201csophisticated form of economic warfare\u201d to confront China.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
The logic underpinning the warfare is that if you squeeze the Chinese economy hard enough Beijing will submit and \u201cplay by the rules.\u201d<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Trump administration plan \u2013 which is, in fact, trade deficit hawk Peter Navarro\u2019s plan \u2013 has three basic targets:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Displace China from the heart of global supply chains.<\/li>\n
  2. Force companies to source elsewhere in the Global South all the components necessary for manufacturing their products.<\/li>\n
  3. Force multinational corporations to stop doing business in China.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The overarching concept is that unending confrontation with China is bound to scare companies\/investors away.<\/p>\n

    There\u2019s no evidence South Korean or German conglomerates, for instance, would withdraw from the vast Chinese market and\/or production facilities.<\/p>\n

    And even if the Flight Away from China actually happened, arguably the American economy would suffer as much, if not more, than China\u2019s.<\/p>\n

    The latest US tariff volley may lower China\u2019s GDP by only 0.9 percentage points, according to Bloomberg Economics. But China may still grow a healthy 6.3% in 2019.<\/p>\n

    This is a decent overview<\/a>, with numbers, of what the trade war might cost China.<\/p>\n

    What\u2019s certain is that Beijing, as confirmed by a rash of editorials in Chinese state media, will not just play defense.<\/p>\n

    \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Here comes the 30-year trade war Trade tensions between the US and China could drag on for decades but China’s focus on its Belt and Road Initiative could provide relief We might be at the start of a decades-long trade war between China and the US. Photo: iStock Alibaba\u2019s Jack Ma has warned that the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[15907,2045,21846,130,4076,805,3222,827],"class_list":["post-38191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-asia-times","tag-beijing","tag-belt-and-road-initiative","tag-china","tag-pepe-escobar","tag-trade","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38192,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38191\/revisions\/38192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}