{"id":3816,"date":"2015-01-01T09:10:37","date_gmt":"2015-01-01T14:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3816"},"modified":"2015-01-01T09:10:37","modified_gmt":"2015-01-01T14:10:37","slug":"why-most-expert-predictions-for-2015-will-be-wrong-rn-breakfast-abc-radio-national-australian-broadcasting-corporation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3816","title":{"rendered":"Why most ‘expert’ predictions for 2015 will be wrong – RN Breakfast – ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why most ‘expert’ predictions for 2015 will be wrong – RN Breakfast – ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to some experts, 2015 will by the year of wearable technology; according to others, the year of low oil prices. The only safe prediction on New Year’s Day is that in a few months, most New Year’s Day predictions will be wrong.Alex McClintock<\/strong>\u00a0takes a look at why we\u2019re so bad at forecasting the future and how we can improve.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Humans have been trying to predict the future since ancient times. Generally speaking, the results have not been good. You may have noticed that the world did not end on December 21, 2012, as supposedly foretold by the Maya. Nor, for that matter, did it end with the Y2K bug.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just the end of the world we\u2019ve been bad at predicting, though. Just days before the Wall Street Crash of 1929, prominent economist Irving Fisher said shares had reached a new, \u2018permanently high plateau\u2019.<\/p>\n

In 1943 the president of IBM predicted that there might one day be a market for as many as five computers.<\/p>\n

On the opposite end of the technology spectrum, 1950s promises of flying cars and meals in pill form are yet to be realised.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a>…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why most ‘expert’ predictions for 2015 will be wrong – RN Breakfast – ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). According to some experts, 2015 will by the year of wearable technology; according to others, the year of low oil prices. The only safe prediction on New Year’s Day is that in a few months, most […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-survival-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3816"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3816\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3817,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3816\/revisions\/3817"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}